President Donald Trump has asserted that his Middle East policy will focus on expanding the Abraham Accords, which aim to normalize the relationship between Israel and America’s key regional Arab allies. This strategy also involves undermining states intent on destabilizing the region, especially Iran. It can be reinforced by working more closely with reliable states such as Israel and Azerbaijan, which have consistently opposed Tehran’s ambitions and supported Israel’s self-defense.

Trump’s national security team will aim to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords, in which four Arab states (the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan) agreed to normalize relations with Israel. The future priorities include Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As for dealing with Iran, the most promising new candidates will be pro-Western Muslim countries with increasing strategic importance.

Azerbaijan is the leading power in the South Caucasus region, adjacent to the Middle East. It is situated between the anti-American alliance of Russia and Iran and sits at the transportation crossroads between Europe and Central Asia.

Image: Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev meet in Davos. YouTube screen grab (cropped).

Azerbaijan is a secular, Shia Muslim-majority state and the largest country in the South Caucasus in terms of territory, population, economy, and military power. It is a significant contributor to Europe’s energy security, supplying oil and increasing volumes of gas to EU countries as an alternative to Russia. It is also a growing transit hub for trade between Europe and Asia.

Of all Muslim states, Azerbaijan has developed the most comprehensive ties with Israel, including a 30-year-long military-strategic partnership. During a December 2024 meeting with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, leaders of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) asserted that the US had not fully appreciated Azerbaijan’s support for Israel and its constructive role in the region.

Since the 1990s, Azerbaijan has been key to Israel’s energy security. In 2021, Israel’s then-Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi stated that Baku remained the country’s largest supplier, and it subsequently boosted its oil exports at the height of Israel’s 2024 war against Hamas. Azerbaijan has also been a leading purchaser of Israeli military equipment, comprising almost 70% of its imports in the 2010s. A new military agreement was signed in September 2024 that will boost hardware purchases and engagement in projects critical to Israel’s security.

As the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University points out in its new research paper, Azerbaijan’s constructive regional role is also evident in Baku’s attempts to mediate relations between Turkey and Israel, which have deteriorated since the war against Hamas. President Aliyev has personally participated in previous efforts and is prepared to take on a similar role during the Trump administration while also serving as a mediator between Israel and other Muslim states.

Israel and Azerbaijan have also developed close ties between their intelligence agencies, particularly in monitoring Iranian developments. Azerbaijan has a long border with Iran, and ethnic Azerbaijanis are Iran’s largest minority, comprising roughly 20% of the country’s population, or almost 18 million people. Israel and Azerbaijan have a common perspective on Iran, viewing the Ayatollah regime as an existential threat to both states.

When Azerbaijan reclaimed the territory of Karabakh from Armenia in a swift military operation in September 2020, Israel sided with Azerbaijan while Iran supported Armenia. Israeli weapons, including heavy artillery, rocket launchers, and drones, proved invaluable for Baku in retaking Karabakh.

The outcomes of the war intensified disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan over transportation routes across the South Caucasus. The Ayatollah regime attempted to pressure Baku not to cut off Iran’s links with Armenia, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps held several large military exercises near the border with Azerbaijan. Tehran also conducted propaganda campaigns against Azerbaijan’s leadership in the Muslim world and sought to discredit President Aliyev for his staunch pro-Israeli stance.

Azerbaijan’s resistance to Iranian regional influence comes at a time when Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a strategic partnership agreement in Moscow on January 17. Among its stipulations is that the two countries will collaborate in dealing with “common military and security threats.” Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have deteriorated recently following the shooting down of an Azerbaijani passenger airline in December 2024 by Russian missiles. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denials and lack of transparency, and President Aliyev demanded punishment for those responsible and reparations for the victims’ families. The Kremlin’s response to the tragedy deepened skepticism in Baku about Russia’s reliability as a partner and may consolidate Azerbaijan’s Western trajectory, on which the Trump administration needs to capitalize.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and the author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.