Bill Ackman was a big Democrat donor who turned on his party when he saw the virulent antisemitism at its heart. He then threw his weight behind Trump, and good for him for doing so. However, he’s really struggling with Trump’s tariff policies and has said so on his huge platform. He shouldn’t worry, though. Not only will Trump not break the economy, but his plans are absolutely genius and will save America.

First, Bill Ackman’s message:

[UPDATE: Someone sent me the perfect meme for that post, so I'm embedding it here.]

It’s long, so I’ll leave it to you to click the “Show more” link rather than clogging the post with his message. Basically, while really trying to support Trump, Ackman says Trump should stop the tariffs for 90 days because no foreign country will ever trust America again, and CEOs and boards of directors will freeze in their tracks.

To the first point, America is the world’s single largest consumer of most countries’ exported goods. These countries know that their customer base is not going anywhere. Americans want to buy their products.

The only thing standing in the way of American consumers is the foreign countries’ trade policies (which, incidentally, impose on America significantly higher tariffs than Trump just imposed on them). If they drop their tariffs against America, Trump will drop his tariffs against them.

In other words, ending the tariff war is entirely within their control. That’s why countries are already reaching out in the dozens to renegotiate trade deals with America, including the EU. This “trade war” will rank not far behind the Anglo-Zanzibar War (38-45 minutes) as one of the shortest wars in recorded history.

The first point answers the second point: People running corporations will look at which way the wind is blowing...and it will blow in America’s favor. Again, we are a ginormous market, and, really importantly, since Trump took office, our economic indicators are exploding in the right direction. Here are the obvious ones:

Job growth is exploding:

According to Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, compared to 117,000 in February, which was revised down from an initial estimate of 151,000.

The reading significantly exceeds the consensus forecast of analysts, compiled by Trading Economics, who had anticipated only 135,000 jobs being added in March.

This means people will have paying jobs that will help them afford any increase the tariffs cause.

Crude oil prices are falling fast:

Oil prices kept falling early Monday; investors fear a trade war will clobber the global economy and sink demand for crude oil.

• U.S. crude futures dropped more than 4% to below $59 a barrel, after falling 14% over two sessions to end last week.
• Brent crude, the global benchmark, also fell more than 4%.

The Wall Street Journal (which I quoted), like other economic reporters, says that the fall is tied to fears about the global economy and adds that frackers will stop fracking soon. I say the opposite is true.

Remember: Oil drives everything in the economy. When it’s expensive, there’s inflation; when it’s cheap, that doesn’t mean recession. It means everything becomes more affordable. People can buy more, and producers can produce more. This is a good thing, and when the crude oil producers see it being a good thing, they’ll respond accordingly.

Lastly, inflation is dropping:

In sum, everything that speaks to a robust consumer economy is going well. Manufacturers are attracted to consumers like bees to flowers. Where the flowers bloom, the bees will follow—and Trump is ensuring that those bees set up factories in America.

But there’s more, and this “more” operates at a very sophisticated level. (Hat tip: Don Surber.) According to Tanvi Ratna, the tariffs are an effort to rejigger the economy to stop America from falling prey to the real horror of our debt load. I’ve embedded her tweet thread below, but here’s a shorter summary of what I see as the key points.

This year alone, $9.2 trillion of America’s $36 trillion debt matures. Since we can’t pay it off, we must refinance it—and that’s where things get interesting.

According to Tanvi, if that debt is rolled into 10-year bonds, every one-point drop in rates is equal to around $1 billion in savings annually. The lower that Trump can get the rates, the more money he can shave off the ultimate debt burden. (She’s got the chart to prove it, too.)

Trump’s focus isn’t on the stock market; it’s on the 10-year bond market. In any event—and this is me, not Tanvi—the stock market is grossly inflated thanks to the fiat money Biden pumped into it and investors’ fear that the real economy (works and factories) had no value. It was a casino. Trump knows the casino cannot last forever, so now is the time to force it back to reality, while lowering America’s debt.

Paired with lowering the debt on the financial side, Trump is also using Musk and DOGE to cut spending. If we spend less, we accrue less debt. And of course, the tariffs themselves will bring in revenue. As a reminder, before the 16th Amendment was passed, the government was funded entirely by tariffs and a few excise taxes on specific goods.

Tanvi acknowledges that this effort will cause higher prices for consumers. However, as I noted, I think those prices will be cushioned by the growing number of trade deals, lower energy prices, and less inflation.

Here are what I consider to be the key Tanvi tweets (to read the rest of them, go to X). Even if you don’t read them, scroll down because I’ve got a rousing conclusion for this post:

To really understand what’s happening, think of an extravagant household in which the residents have been spending money like water and running up massive debt, far exceeding their income. When the residents finally go to a financial counselor, they’re told two things: consolidate all their debt at a lower interest rate and stop spending. Oh, and of course, keep working hard to maintain at least the current income.

This is good advice for a nation, too: Consolidate your debt at a lower interest rate and stop spending. But how in the world do you do that with a $36 trillion debt, a quarter of which is coming due, a spending habit that amounts to $6.9 trillion a year, and annual revenue of only $4.7 trillion?

Trump has figured out how to refinance the debt at a lower interest rate, cut the spending and, by boosting the real economy (not the inflated paper economy of the stock market), increase tax revenue. It’s genius, sheer genius, and it may be the one thing that saves America.

The American people have it figured out, even if the chattering classes have not. That’s why I would rewrite this headline— “Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches 53% Despite Tariff Controversy”—to say “Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches 53% Because Of Tariffs.”

Image by Freepik AI.

This post has been updated to correct an error about the U.S.'s annual tax revenue.