Twilight of the boomers
Years ago, a particular generational cohort prompted demographers to coin the phrase “goat in the python.”
The cause of this phenomenon is actually rather basic.
During the Great Depression birth rates plummeted.
The shortage of children was felt so dearly in the hearts of so many that a little girl named Shirley Temple was for a while Hollywood’s number one box office attraction.
When World War II ended, it was expected by many that the Depression would begin all over again since so many unemployed men would be leaving the military and so many other people would no longer be needed in defense industries.
That didn’t happen. The production of consumer goods was severely limited during the war, causing many workers to take much of their pay in war bonds since there were fewer things that they could spend it on.
Economists call this capital formation.
Combine this with vastly improved construction techniques and millions of Ozzies and Harriets moved into suburban tract houses and started to raise families.
Thus, the post-war baby boom was born.
It wasn’t, however, all that easy for the python to swallow the goat.
When I was in elementary school, several prefab bungalows had to be set down on what was once a playground … in order to accommodate the spike in enrollment.
Fast forward to our modern world.
An inevitable force of nature has morphed the boomer babies of the past into the senior citizens of today.
This is much, much more significant than just bumping up the demand for hearing aids and Depends, though healthcare truly is ground zero for concern.
Doctors, nurses, pharmacists and their highly trained assistants have long been aging and are now retiring at record rates. They are transitioning from being providers into being consumers of health care. This could be called a double-whammy.
The health care industry is desperately dealing with staffing and seeking new technologies to reduce the need for skilled personnel. Reducing in-patient treatment requirements has also had some impact … but the overall aging of the population will continue to apply stress to the system.
Actuarial consequences for this aspect of demographics have long been anticipated.
Little, however, has been done to mitigate the problem. Much concern has been focused on the solvency of Social Security, but there are many other pension plans especially for government workers who are exempted from Social Security.
The Reason Foundation estimates the combined current unfunded liability of these plans to be at $1.59 trillion in its 2024 Pension Solvency and Performance Report.
In addition to demographics, political correctness has contributed to this problem by forbidding investment in such profitable financial pariahs as Israel and the oil industry. Social Security never invested its “float” of surplus funds back when its income exceeded its outgo — and was therefore denied any of the benefits of capital formation.
Now, it’s too late.
There are so many retirees largely dependent on Social Security that it’s earned the title “The Third Rail of Politics”… if you touch it you can die … politically, that is.
Forbes recently calculated that, once the expected depletion of the primary Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund occurs in 2033, recipients will still get 76% of their benefit from the money being collected from those still paying in Social Security Isn’t Going Bankrupt—Here’s Why – Forbes Advisor.
Then what?
Milton Friedman called Social Security “Robin Hood in reverse” because it takes from the poorest demographic by age — young people just starting out — and it gives to the richest age cohort — people who’ve had many years to accumulate wealth.
And, as a lasting aftermath of the boomers being such a unique and specific generation, subsequent generations have also been labeled … but only for the reason that their predecessors were so significantly identified. You got your X, Y and Z … so far. Y is also known as “Millennials.”
Gee, everybody’s trying to get into the act.
Image: Vasenka Photography, via Flickr // CC BY 2.0