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December 6, 2024

Is Damascus going down?

By Monica Showalter

It isn't looking good for Syria's detested dictator, Bashar al-Assad.

The strongman is surrounded by multiple rebel factions, all of which have blocked his route out of the city off.

He's losing city after city in rapid succession, domino-style:

And they're getting stronger:

According to Syria-watcher Saul Sadka, who seems to be from Israel:

If the rebels capture the Homs area, it is all over for Assad. His Alawite coastal heartland and all the ports (circled in pink) will be cut off from the capital Damascus. Iran would lose access to all but two border crossings into Lebanon (mountain passes that Israel can, and routinely does, control via airstrikes. The Kurds are also pushing into Deir Az Zor (circled in yellow), and if they succeed, Iran will lose its primary supply route to Hezbollah (they will be forced to run the gauntlet across the Syrian desert, within easy reach of US bases).

The best case for Assad is that his poorly paid troops can hold Homs, allowing him to keep a rump state (the blue circled area). If he can't, expect huge bloodletting as the hated Alawites reap the whirlwind of their 50 years of oppression of all the other groups.

Assad's head from a statue is being dragged through one city's streets:

Some reports have it that Assad and his family have fled.

China and Russia have ordered their diplomats and nationals out:

Iraq has asked its nationals to prove they are Iraqi by registering at their Damascus embassy, or they aren't getting into Iraq:

Iran's mullahs seem helpless:

The Kurds are on the march, taking city after city:

Assad's side is going the Baghdad Bob route, saying all's fine:

Longtime foreign correspondents say it's starting to feel like Kabul, circa 2021 again.

None of these players are good guys -- they're either terrorists, Iran proxies, Russian stooges, Turkish janissaries, or something else anti-American.

Some are predicting a bloodbath:

It's too soon to tell what is and will be happening. But three things are likely:

One: Whoever got this going knew that President Trump was coming to office and therefore the time to act was now, while weak-horse Joe Biden was still in the saddle  and Biden's men seem asleep at the wheel. That's a terrible ending note to Joe Biden's miserable presidency.

Two: Iran's mullahs, and maybe even Vladimir Putin know they may be next, and will probably respond accordingly.

Three: the refugees (real ones) will flow westward -- or to any place they can find.

Image: Screen shot from X video.

 

 

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