There is a lot of talk about the elections next November. A lot of pundits are correct in saying that the incumbent usually loses seats or the whole House, i.e. Obama in 2010 or Clinton 1994. In Obama's case, it came less than two years after walking on water to the Oval Office. And it's true that Trump took a beating in 2018. So, the pundits are right that the incumbent has his work cut out looking ahead to the midterms.

What makes 2026 so unpredictable is that Trump is unpredictable. Trump is like the cat with 30 lives.  Don't bet against him because you might lose.

The latest polls show just how confusing things are.  The new generic average has Democrats plus 3.7%. How many seats would that translate to next November? Not many. It's no wave if that's what the Democrats are wishing and hoping for. In fact, given redistricting it may not be enough to win the House. If they do win the House, it will not be a wave or mandate.  

It may actually turn into a nightmare for a Speaker Jeffries because such a victory could embolden the Mandani wing rather than the moderates.

The Trump approval number is weak but the latest Harris has him at 47%.  The overall RCP average is down almost 10 but Harris may be picking up a movement in the right direction.

Graphic: Truth Social Post

President Trump has two things going for him. The first is 11 months and the reality that a lot of good economic news may be coming. My opinion is the economy is going to look a lot better next summer, but it may not. The second advantage for Trump and the GOP is the Democrat party. According to the RCP average, the Democrats are in a much bigger hole:  34% favorable or minus 22%.

So maybe the Democrats will be twisting a future November night away. Maybe there will be sad faces over at the Trump White House next November. My point is that no one knows today and waiting until summer may be wise for those planning a big party down the road.

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