The Spanish blackout made us all aware of how unstable the grid can get when renewables are in the driver’s seat, but one should also not forget that they don’t come cheaply. The idea of getting free energy from wind and solar is inaccurate.  Man must build machines to extract energy from nature and those machines, windmills and solar panels, are expensive.

However, proponents of renewables point to the fact that once the windmills and solar panels are installed, there is no added cost for fuel. That’s true, but there is more to the story. The capital cost of capacity for onshore wind, solar, and natural gas is $1.7 /W, $1.3/W, and $1.2/W, respectively, a difference, but maybe not what one would call significant.

However, there is a gross disparity between capacity factors for each with 31% for wind, 20% for solar, and 60% for natural gas, as evidenced by the figures from Texas grid operator, ERCOT, in 2023. The capacity factor is a measure of how effectively a power plant or energy-producing system is operating compared to its maximum potential output over a specific period (Capacity Factor = Actual Output / Maximum Possible Output).

It should be said that a capacity factor of 60% for natural gas is what one would expect if the operator were only dependent upon natural gas. The current situation where natural gas generation is used to backup solar and wind generation drives the capacity factor for natural gas generation down to 36%.

With these lower capacity factors, one gets a cost multiple of over 1.5 times greater to operate a mixed energy system versus a system with just natural gas. My calculations are here for all to examine.  Another way to look at it is that the price of natural gas would have to go up by a factor of five (x5) to make the combined system with wind, solar, and natural gas cost competitive against a system with natural gas alone. Although Texas has a lot to brag about, its use of multiple energy sources to power its grid is not one of them.  Why would one expect any other result from a scheme that requires massive subsidies, mandates, and tax breaks to even exist?

So, if renewables are unreliable and expensive, who finds them appealing? The answer is folks that are so guilt-ridden about their role in a supposed climate catastrophe that they will grab on to any scheme that offers them absolution, whether it has merit or not.

Image generated by AI.