Many pro-Israel people I know, both Jewish and non-Jewish, are deeply worried about Trump’s current Middle East positions. He’s marginalizing Israel in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, accepting on the government’s behalf a luxury plane from double-dealing Qatar, and handing money to the goons in Syria. At the same time, he’s seemingly freezing out Israel, to the great consternation of Israel and its supporters.

So, what gives? Having read Charles Lipson’s superb analysis of the problems in dealing with an almost nuclear Iran, and how Biden created this monster, I suspect that “what gives” may be Trump trying an out-of-the-box approach to isolating Iran long enough for his economic policies and sanctions to bankrupt the mullahs.

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Lipson’s essay, which is behind a paywall but to which you can get one-time access, asks “What to do about Iran?” I urge you to read it, but the ten-cent summary is as follows:

• Iran desperately wants to have nuclear weapons, and is dedicating itself to obtaining them.
• Iran routinely cheats on agreements.
• If Iran goes nuclear, it will annihilate Israel and pose an existential threat to Europe.
• Israel knows that, if Iran goes nuclear, it will bomb Israel.
• Israel also knows that if it unilaterally attacks Iran, it will strain relations with America and spark a war between Israel and Iran.
• Israel lacks the military capacity to deliver bunker-buster bombs. Only the U.S. can do that.
• Trump knows that if the U.S. allies with Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it may detonate a huge war that violates Trump’s promises (and firm goal) of keeping America out of wars, while activating every Iranian terrorist sleeper cell at home and abroad.

Lipson also points out that none of this would have happened were it not for Biden (or, more accurately, his handlers). During his four years in office, Trump had almost brought the mullahs to their knees financially. Biden put Iran back in the money by failing to enforce the sanctions.

Upon returning to office, Trump immediately reinstated sanctions, but these are measures that take time to take effect. He has also enacted energy policies that have led to a decline in the price of oil. This has been wonderful domestically because it offsets rising prices from his tariff initiatives, but it also undercuts the mullahs’ chief source of financing.

As before, given enough time, Trump will bankrupt the mullahs. The problem is that Trump doesn’t have time. It’ll take years to affect the mullahs’ finances, while the mullahs are weeks away from building the bomb.

So, what is Trump to do?

It’s entirely possible that Trump is doing everything he can to isolate the mullahs within the Middle East itself. Qatar has always been Iran-friendly, but Trump will make it America-friendly.

Saudi Arabia fears Iran, but Hamas’s deliberate use of the October 7 attack to halt normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia means that it’s at risk of falling into Iran’s camp. Trump needs to bring Saudi Arabia—whose ruler Biden grossly insulted—back into the American fold, even if that means temporarily ditching normalization with Israel.

And finally, Syria has long been an Iranian satellite. Trump is trying to make it an American satellite.

Looked at from this perspective, Trump isn’t trying to destroy Israel. He’s hoping to destroy Israel’s most serious existential enemy by depriving Iran of regional allies long enough for his sanctions against Iran, combined with low oil prices, to destroy the mullahs. Indeed, if these countries fall into the American camp, it makes it easier for Trump and/or Israel to destroy Iran’s facilities on Kharg Island, through it processes and exports almost all of its crude oil.

If attaining this geopolitical realignment in the Middle East means cold-shouldering Israel in the short term...well, Trump will do what he’s got to do.

In this existential card game, Trump (thanks to Biden) comes in with the world’s worst hand. But typically for Trump, he is doing what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he does best: Creating leverage where none existed before.

Alternatively, if my interpretation is wrong, Trump’s cold shoulder to Israel is deeply troubling. It would mean that Trump is abandoning a long-time ally to annihilation, and using his domestic war against antisemitism as cover. Yes, it would be an “American First” policy, but it would also be profoundly morally evil. So, I really hope I’m correct in how I’m reading this situation.