What is the true number of vaccine-related deaths?

Based on official data from Open VAERS and the CDC, 5,993 Americans have died out of 146,171,792 Americans who are fully vaccinated as of June 11. This corresponds to a ratio of about four deaths out of 100,000 who are fully vaccinated.

When VAERS death rates are compared with COVID-19 vaccination rates from December to June, an odd pattern emerges: Vaccine-related deaths decline just as vaccination rates reach their peak in April (Graph 1). This implies that the VAERS death rate started at 18 per 100,000 on the 1st of February, then dropped to around 3.1 per 100,000 on the 1st of June (Table). If this remarkable trend really took place, why didn’t it make headlines?

Graph1: Comparing VAERS death rates by month with overall vaccination rates from December 2020 to June 2021. Vaccination rates were provided by the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. Death rates were provided by VAERS.

 Date in 2021 Cumulative VAERS deaths Cumulative Fully vaccinated Calculated Deaths per 100K Fully Vaccinated February 1 1,395 7,617,413 18 March 1 2,577 29,435,446 8.8 April 1 3,679 63,676,884 5.8 May 1 4,232 110,085,143 3.8 June 1 4,375 139,242,635 3.1

Table: Comparing VAERS death rates per 100K vaccinated over time. The vaccine death rate was calculated by dividing VAERS deaths per month by the total vaccinated. Cumulative total vaccinated was provided by the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.

Silicon valley inventor/entrepreneur Steve Kirsch claims “inside sources” told him the true death count is 25,800 and that the CDC has been “reclassifying” most vaccine-related deaths. These are serious accusations and given the ubiquity of “anonymous sources” spreading fake news, it is unwise to relay this information unless it leads to citable evidence.

Fortunately, Kirsch did not only cite an anonymous source. He also provided instructions for accessing these “hidden” deaths from the CDC at the 20:20 time mark of this video. Following these instructions, I downloaded the CDC file and found that the “unclassified” death rate trend “coincidentally” follows the vaccination trend with remarkable consistency (Graph 2).

Graph2: Comparing “unclassified” death rates by week with overall vaccination rates from December 2020 to June 2021. Vaccination rates were provided by the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. Death rates were provided by the CDC’s “Weekly Provisional Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes.”

If values prior to December (left bar in Graph 3) are subtracted from values December to June (right bar in Graph 3), the number of excess “unclassified” deaths is 32,060. This is comparable to Steve Kirsch’s difference of 25,800 (My calculation may be higher because I downloaded the data a few days after Kirsch posted the video).

Graph3: Total “unclassified” deaths before and after vaccine availability. Death rates were provided the CDC’s “Weekly Provisional Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes.”

A total of 32,060 vaccine-related deaths from December to June comes out to a death rate of 21 per 100,000 fully vaccinated. This is almost the same as the VAERS death rate recorded for the beginning of February (Table). Is this another “coincidence”?

For the sake of argument, let’s suppose a massive number of people reporting these “unclassified” deaths were unsure if their loved one had died from the vaccine, so they avoided reporting to VAERS in fear of being prosecuted for the federal crime of “false reporting.” How could the CDC have failed to notice this trend in “unclassified” death?

For the sake of argument, let’s suppose that after February the CDC started relocating massive number of vaccine-related adverse events to another database to ensure their vaccination drive proceeded without interruption.

Occam’s razor favors the second scenario, but either way, the CDC has a lot of explaining to do.

Antonio Chaves teaches biology at a local community college. His interest in economic and social issues stems from his experience teaching environmental science. His older articles with graphs and images are available here.

Images: Antonio Chaves

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