The computer model is not God.  After I got my M.S. in statistical analysis and research methodology, I was involved with all manner of "modeling" for a number of years.  I can tell you: computer models are nothing more than a black box containing somebody's theories and (and this is not an unimportant consideration) future career prospects.  That black box has crank on it.  When the crank is turned, a set of data (which in itself might have been collected in a biased way) is ground through an analytical process according to that somebody's understanding of the universe.  Computer models, in short, are made by people, and they can only magnify the good or bad in the people who make them.  Meteorologists, for instance, used to be called "weathermen" back in the days before their predictions reached a level of accuracy that inspired any confidence at all.  Now, after developing their...(Read Full Post)