Five ways the Democrat convention backfired on Joe Biden, benefitting Donald Trump

Has President Trump just eaten Joe Biden's lunch?

Sure looks that way based on multiple indicators flashing pro-Trump signals in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Sure, the leftist press is reporting that Biden's favorability numbers have notched up in the wake of his curiously gaffe-less convention speech, but it's thin gruel. Fact is, that's the only thing they have.

But if you look mostly on the right column of the front page of RealClearPolitics, it's pretty clear the trend is President Trump's friend. Apparently the artifice and over-processed convention infomercial, with its many technical sleights of hand (see here and here), didn't fool the voters. And if it did, not all that many of them watched. Television ratings were down 12% over the previous four-year period. America has more than 150 million registered voters, and only 22 million bothered to watch.

The news was all good for President Trump, who got a rise in his approval ratings in the polls. According to Clarice Feldman's column today:

The President’s approval rating on Rasmussen was 47% as the convention began. Once underway it soared to 51% and has stayed there.

And the left is scrambling to cover for it. "Don't be surprised if Biden doesn't get a bounce in the polls..." writes Washington Post columnist and swamper Karen Tumulty, citing the low televisiom viewership. More important, the Democratic Party platform is likely an issue, what columnist Peggy Noonan called the Trump vs. the "what the other guys will do" problem. The Democratic platform promised, in couched and sugary terms, more lockdowns, higher taxes, anti-industry, fewer cops and more illegal immigrant policies, all of which was a turnoff for voters. Biden may have delivered a much-praised speech and raised his favorability ratings because of it but the voters weren't buying the package. The result? Trump just walked off with the convention bounce.

Trump is doing better than he did at this point in 2016, too, according to RCP, a sign of voters in key areas making up their minds. 

Trump is actually ahead in battleground states based on the same RCP chart - this is where elections are won. The RealClearPolitics chart here is an eye-opener.

Trump's job approval rating has moved into positive territory, standing at 51% approval and 47% disapproval, according to the latest survey, from Rasmussen. On the economy, multiple polls cited by RealClear over a longer period of time also show in well into positive territory. Democrats know this, which is why they are seeking to use COVID as a means of keeping the economy shut down. Some are moving back to the old Obama administration lie that Trump didn't create a good economy with his tax cuts and regulations, he just "inherited" it. The desperate shutdown effort is failing.

And that brings us to one of the most dangerous indicators for Democrats, and the most positive for Trump - the stock market is rising. That can only be good news for Trump, a further sign of a v-shaped recovery in the wake of the artificial COVID shutdowns.

If you like bottom-feeding the left, note that Paul Krugman, a leading counter-indicator with a stellar record of bad predictions, says according to this RCP headline: "We're about to see a huge surge in national misery," citing the rising stocks. Krugman shows his abysmal ignorance of markets in this, failing to recognize that stocks are a forward indicator, several steps ahead of the actual performance of the economy and representative of market expectations. They don't go up when investors think the economy is going to go south. They reflect the expectations of millions that profits, yes, profits, a dirty word to the left, but easily translated by the right into 'jobs,' are what's ahead under Trump, the president whose leadership is intensely focused on ending, not extending, the COVID crisis as Joe Biden wants.

All signs are out there that the trend is moving in President Trump's favor, even before the Republican National Convention, slated this week, with a terrific four days of focus on promise, opportunity, heroes, and greatness, gets off the ground. If the Democratic convention could give Trump a bounce, think what the Republican convention is going to do. All systems go, for Trump, the news is very likely to be chock full of more good indicators for Trump, whether the blue-checks like it or not. Watch them try to spin them away. Joe Biden just lost his lunch.

 

Photo illustration by Monica Showalter with use of image by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr // CC BY-SA 2.0. Processed with FotoSketcher.

Has President Trump just eaten Joe Biden's lunch?

Sure looks that way based on multiple indicators flashing pro-Trump signals in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Sure, the leftist press is reporting that Biden's favorability numbers have notched up in the wake of his curiously gaffe-less convention speech, but it's thin gruel. Fact is, that's the only thing they have.

But if you look mostly on the right column of the front page of RealClearPolitics, it's pretty clear the trend is President Trump's friend. Apparently the artifice and over-processed convention infomercial, with its many technical sleights of hand (see here and here), didn't fool the voters. And if it did, not all that many of them watched. Television ratings were down 12% over the previous four-year period. America has more than 150 million registered voters, and only 22 million bothered to watch.

The news was all good for President Trump, who got a rise in his approval ratings in the polls. According to Clarice Feldman's column today:

The President’s approval rating on Rasmussen was 47% as the convention began. Once underway it soared to 51% and has stayed there.

And the left is scrambling to cover for it. "Don't be surprised if Biden doesn't get a bounce in the polls..." writes Washington Post columnist and swamper Karen Tumulty, citing the low televisiom viewership. More important, the Democratic Party platform is likely an issue, what columnist Peggy Noonan called the Trump vs. the "what the other guys will do" problem. The Democratic platform promised, in couched and sugary terms, more lockdowns, higher taxes, anti-industry, fewer cops and more illegal immigrant policies, all of which was a turnoff for voters. Biden may have delivered a much-praised speech and raised his favorability ratings because of it but the voters weren't buying the package. The result? Trump just walked off with the convention bounce.

Trump is doing better than he did at this point in 2016, too, according to RCP, a sign of voters in key areas making up their minds. 

Trump is actually ahead in battleground states based on the same RCP chart - this is where elections are won. The RealClearPolitics chart here is an eye-opener.

Trump's job approval rating has moved into positive territory, standing at 51% approval and 47% disapproval, according to the latest survey, from Rasmussen. On the economy, multiple polls cited by RealClear over a longer period of time also show in well into positive territory. Democrats know this, which is why they are seeking to use COVID as a means of keeping the economy shut down. Some are moving back to the old Obama administration lie that Trump didn't create a good economy with his tax cuts and regulations, he just "inherited" it. The desperate shutdown effort is failing.

And that brings us to one of the most dangerous indicators for Democrats, and the most positive for Trump - the stock market is rising. That can only be good news for Trump, a further sign of a v-shaped recovery in the wake of the artificial COVID shutdowns.

If you like bottom-feeding the left, note that Paul Krugman, a leading counter-indicator with a stellar record of bad predictions, says according to this RCP headline: "We're about to see a huge surge in national misery," citing the rising stocks. Krugman shows his abysmal ignorance of markets in this, failing to recognize that stocks are a forward indicator, several steps ahead of the actual performance of the economy and representative of market expectations. They don't go up when investors think the economy is going to go south. They reflect the expectations of millions that profits, yes, profits, a dirty word to the left, but easily translated by the right into 'jobs,' are what's ahead under Trump, the president whose leadership is intensely focused on ending, not extending, the COVID crisis as Joe Biden wants.

All signs are out there that the trend is moving in President Trump's favor, even before the Republican National Convention, slated this week, with a terrific four days of focus on promise, opportunity, heroes, and greatness, gets off the ground. If the Democratic convention could give Trump a bounce, think what the Republican convention is going to do. All systems go, for Trump, the news is very likely to be chock full of more good indicators for Trump, whether the blue-checks like it or not. Watch them try to spin them away. Joe Biden just lost his lunch.

 

Photo illustration by Monica Showalter with use of image by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr // CC BY-SA 2.0. Processed with FotoSketcher.