Pelosi has sealed the fate of Trump district Democrats

The only remaining unknown concerning the upcoming impeachment vote is this: how will the 31 Democrats in Trump districts vote?  These Democrats may be risking their chances of re-election should they vote for impeachment, thereby angering their constituents who voted for Trump in 2016.

The assumption is that Pelosi has the votes for impeachment, which means that at least half of the 31 are already committed to impeaching the president. But how many will defect?  Estimates are that somewhere between 6 and 12 Democrats may defect to the Republican side.  However, it may well be that whether they vote for or against impeachment is irrelevant, and their fate is already sealed.

In 1994, Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time in four decades.  Democrats lost 53 seats in rural areas.  The way that came about may indicate how the Trump district Democrats will fare in 2020.

When Patrick Griffin, chief congressional affairs lobbyist for the Clinton administration, told Democrat leadership in the House that the president wanted to move forward with an assault weapons ban, they were in disbelief.  "You are all crazy.  We want to see the president."

The Democrat leadership trio — speaker of the House Tom Foley, House majority leader Richard Gephardt, and House majority whip David Bonior — went to the White House to dissuade the president from the idea.

At the meeting, the congressmen appealed to the president that they would help him on the crime bill, "but Mr. President, don't push the assault weapon ban."  Clinton responded: "I'm absolutely going to promote it."  They said to the president, "We're not going to bring up the crime bill that has the assault weapon ban in it.  You're going to have to [amend] it on the floor.  We're not going to have anything to do with it."

The three congressmen, with a combined six decades of experience, tried to deter the president from what they believed would be a decision with disastrous political consequences.  They asked the president three times to shelve the idea.  Speaker Foley, shaking his head, said: "Please, Mr. President, don't push the assault weapon ban."  Gephardt, who supported the idea, said to the President: "I'm for it, but this is going to be devastating to our troops.  Please don't do it."  The president would not budge and just said: "We're going for it."  The congressmen responded: "Fine.  We're not going to help you at all...we'll have nothing to do with it."

With help from Republicans, the assault weapons ban narrowly passed.  However, the consequences came soon after as Republicans took control of the House in the 1994 elections.

Griffin was asked if the assault weapons ban was a key factor in the Democrats losing control of Congress: "Absolutely.  Yes.  I'd say, for 40 of those seats[.] ... For [Judiciary Committee] Chairman [Jack] Brooks (of Texas) to lose his seat [after 42 years]?  [Speaker of the House] Foley?  These guys had been safe forever.  And they voted against all this stuff but they were still targeted politically because their president was for the [assault weapons] ban."

It may not matter how these 31 Democrats from Trump districts vote regarding impeachment.  Similar to President Clinton, Nancy Pelosi may be sinking the ship for Democrats.  The fact that Democrat leadership squandered the opportunity given to them by these swing voters by pursuing impeachment, instead of advancing policies that would help their constituents, may be what flips these districts red in 2020.  And it will be irrelevant how a voter's personal representative voted, since it was control of the House of Representatives that facilitated this impeachment.

Time will tell.  And in the famous words of the 45th president: "we'll see what happens."

The only remaining unknown concerning the upcoming impeachment vote is this: how will the 31 Democrats in Trump districts vote?  These Democrats may be risking their chances of re-election should they vote for impeachment, thereby angering their constituents who voted for Trump in 2016.

The assumption is that Pelosi has the votes for impeachment, which means that at least half of the 31 are already committed to impeaching the president. But how many will defect?  Estimates are that somewhere between 6 and 12 Democrats may defect to the Republican side.  However, it may well be that whether they vote for or against impeachment is irrelevant, and their fate is already sealed.

In 1994, Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time in four decades.  Democrats lost 53 seats in rural areas.  The way that came about may indicate how the Trump district Democrats will fare in 2020.

When Patrick Griffin, chief congressional affairs lobbyist for the Clinton administration, told Democrat leadership in the House that the president wanted to move forward with an assault weapons ban, they were in disbelief.  "You are all crazy.  We want to see the president."

The Democrat leadership trio — speaker of the House Tom Foley, House majority leader Richard Gephardt, and House majority whip David Bonior — went to the White House to dissuade the president from the idea.

At the meeting, the congressmen appealed to the president that they would help him on the crime bill, "but Mr. President, don't push the assault weapon ban."  Clinton responded: "I'm absolutely going to promote it."  They said to the president, "We're not going to bring up the crime bill that has the assault weapon ban in it.  You're going to have to [amend] it on the floor.  We're not going to have anything to do with it."

The three congressmen, with a combined six decades of experience, tried to deter the president from what they believed would be a decision with disastrous political consequences.  They asked the president three times to shelve the idea.  Speaker Foley, shaking his head, said: "Please, Mr. President, don't push the assault weapon ban."  Gephardt, who supported the idea, said to the President: "I'm for it, but this is going to be devastating to our troops.  Please don't do it."  The president would not budge and just said: "We're going for it."  The congressmen responded: "Fine.  We're not going to help you at all...we'll have nothing to do with it."

With help from Republicans, the assault weapons ban narrowly passed.  However, the consequences came soon after as Republicans took control of the House in the 1994 elections.

Griffin was asked if the assault weapons ban was a key factor in the Democrats losing control of Congress: "Absolutely.  Yes.  I'd say, for 40 of those seats[.] ... For [Judiciary Committee] Chairman [Jack] Brooks (of Texas) to lose his seat [after 42 years]?  [Speaker of the House] Foley?  These guys had been safe forever.  And they voted against all this stuff but they were still targeted politically because their president was for the [assault weapons] ban."

It may not matter how these 31 Democrats from Trump districts vote regarding impeachment.  Similar to President Clinton, Nancy Pelosi may be sinking the ship for Democrats.  The fact that Democrat leadership squandered the opportunity given to them by these swing voters by pursuing impeachment, instead of advancing policies that would help their constituents, may be what flips these districts red in 2020.  And it will be irrelevant how a voter's personal representative voted, since it was control of the House of Representatives that facilitated this impeachment.

Time will tell.  And in the famous words of the 45th president: "we'll see what happens."