Trump wins with the votes of people who don't like him
Three years ago, President Trump was elected because he isn't Hillary Clinton. But he won't have her to kick around in 2020. And none of the Democrats running is as bad as Hillary when it comes to turning off voters. She's in a league of her own.
Of the 54% of the public that disapproves of Trump, I'd wager that a third of them have some sort of stake in the stock market. Of all Americans, 52% own stocks.
So say you've got 18% of voters who a) have a piece of the market and b) don't like Trump. Right now they're telling pollsters they won't vote for Trump. Come election day, a lot of them will have a change of heart. They won't admit it to pollsters. They might not admit it to their own family. Trump is a controversial man. But in the privacy of the polling booth, they'll ask themselves, "Do I really want to vote for the Democrat, and watch my investment tank? Or should I vote for Trump, who will work every day to boost the market?"
It's already common wisdom on the business networks, Fox and CNBC, that a Trump loss to someone like Warren or Sanders would sink the market. And the longer the Democratic primary lasts, the more the economy-killing ideas of the candidates will be understood by investors.
Trump, in part, measures his success by the market. He's open about it. He's sending a message. At a recent rally, he told of seeing an old adversary in the White House, a successful businessman he knew well, and he knew that this guy didn't like him at all. The guy explained that he was there to help Trump get re-elected. "I've got no choice!" he said.
The president loved telling that story. Then he smiled at the cameras and said with a smirk, "You may not like me, but you've got no choice!"
Fritz Pettyjohn lives off his stock portfolio and is an avid Trump-supporter.