North America is the China-US trade war winner
Mexico and Canada were America's top two trade partners in the first six months of 2019 as the escalating China-U.S. trade war booted China to third place.
With China falling behind Mexico and Canada, President Trumps' trade war has succeeded in making North America's revised trading bloc larger in population and GDP than the 28-nation European Union, according to Geopolitical Futures.
President Trump famously tweeted on December 4, 2018:
I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN
Six months later, U.S. importers paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, a 74-percent spike compared to a year ago, despite a slight decline in import values. About $3.4 billion of those tariffs were imposed by President Trump, according to a study titled "Tariffs Hurt the Heartland" by The Trade Partnership, a globalist Washington, D.C. consulting firm.
The report claims that Trump's tariffs are highly inflationary by forcing consumers to pay an extra $4.4 billion for apparel, $2.5 billion for footwear, $3.7 billion for toys and $1.6 billion for household appliances." But U.S. inflation in the first half of 2019 averaged just 1.7 percent, down from 2.4 percent last year, according to the U.S. Inflation Calculator.
The biggest key to holding back inflation has been the rapid global redeployment of manufacturing supply chains from China to Mexico, Canada, and even the United States. The repositioning speed demonstrates that analysts in the New York City to Washington, D.C. corridor that predicted an inflationary spike had no clue regarding multinational businesses always having "disaster recovery" plans for alternative suppliers.
Democrats and #NeverTrump Republicans have fumed that the only economic alternative to political integration of globalism's multilateral trade pacts is "insular nationalism" and financial decline. But U.S. first-half growth in 2019 was a solid 2.6 percent, while $9.93 trillion of foreign investment was repatriated to the United States.
Critics scoffed when the White House announced the United States–Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on October 1, 2018 to replace the "failed" North American Free Trade Agreement. Unlike the European Union and rejected Trans Pacific Partnership, the USMCA does not require "harmonizing regulations and statutes" that compromise sovereignty by transferring legal authority to panels of multilateral bureaucrats.
The reason the U.K. middle class voted to leave, and five other European Union (E.U.) members are considering leaving, is the documented income inequality effects from free trade agreements that promote job-killing cheaper goods from low-wage countries, while steering most wage gains to "elite" workers who make more than $88,000 a year.
Although many Americans view Mexico as a third-world country, it now has the 15th largest economy. On a "purchasing power parity" basis, that measures economic activity against the ability to buy goods in a country's currency, Mexico would rank 11th. According to Geopolitical Partners, "Australia ranks just one spot above Mexico, and countries like Spain, South Korea and Canada are not too far ahead either."
The USMCA is positioned for a major expansion, with the U.K. set to leave the E.U. on October 1 and President Trump offering the fifth largest economy in the world a USMCA associated membership on similar free trade terms. Combining the U.K.'s $2.6-trillion GDP with the USMCA's $22.1-trillion GDP would create a $24.7-trillion trade pact compared to the $17.3-trillion European Union pact.