Why Crazy Bernie will lose in 2020

Fifteen months from now, Democrats will nominate their least electable (with the possible exception of Kamala Harris) candidate for U.S. president, who will then go down in flames.  This is not just because he's a Castro-loving nut who traveled to Russia to bond with his fellow commies in the 1980s — voters have short memories and will forgive or ignore history that ancient.  And Democrats themselves would not lose sleep over the irony of pitching Crazy Bernie after years of collusion delusion.  The specific reasons for Crazy's pending loss (if he lives that long) are as follows.

First: Crazy is too old for change or rebranding.  He is an old-school, fleck-spittle socialist, a believer in working-class unity against the exploiters.  He does not follow the tribal segmentation practices of modern-day identitarian Democrats.  Unlike Crooked, he carries no hot sauce in his purse.  He does not "speak to black people" or to any other demographic.  He can't get behind open borders.  He has not attacked Mike Pence for being Christian, because to him all religion is equally wretched.  For the same reason, he will not pander to Muslim-Americans — that's not what true socialists do.  He doesn't even seem to view Donald J. Trump as the world's biggest problem (that would be those exploiters).  He will be nominated by virtue of his pre-existing (2016) base as well as crowding in the Democrat field, even as his colorblind, sex-blind, orientation-blind, non-culture-warrior approach is alien to the majority of the party's new hard base of tribes, grievance groups, bitter her-turners, and social justice warriors.  We saw how almost no blacks voted for Crazy in the 2016 Democrat primaries, and they will not turn out for him at near Obama-level numbers in the 2020 general.  Yet no Democrat who fails to motivate near Obama-level black turnout can beat POTUS Trump in the Electoral College.

Second: Crazy turns off the Wall Street money men.  Although the West Coast techies are nearly there, the single largest Democrat fundraising pool remains Greater New York–area investment bank and hedge fund executives and their wives each giving the legal $2,700-a-pop to candidates, as well as a smaller number of mostly finance-oriented mega-millionaires and a few billionaires propping up Democrat committees and super-PACs to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars each cycle.  Excepting two or three maniacs such as Tom Steyer and George Soros (if he lives that long), most of the cuff-linked shirts will sit out 2020 once this Spartacist is nominated.  Most of the rest of the corporate and business worlds will also either come to Trump or else sulk on the sidelines.  Let's see how far Crazy's small donors carry him then.

Third: Crazy will turn off the dedicated pro-Israel machine, most of which (believe it or not) is somehow still Democrat.  This is not a large segment of American Jewry, much less the general population, but it raises loads of timely, finely targeted cash.  In the spring and summer of 2008, once Obama conned them into believing he was favorable to Israel (I was there and saw this with my own eyes — amazing!), enough of them defected from Crooked to put him over the top for the primaries.  But with Crazy as nominee this time, most of them will sit out the last months of the 2020 campaign.

Fourth: This last one is speculative but realistic.  Ahead of the election, POTUS Trump could pull the rug out from under Crazy's "Bernie Bro" hipster asylum by ceasing enforcement of the federal prohibition on marijuana, essentially decriminalizing the drug nationwide, with or likely without congressional go-along (the same path that gave us Obama's DACA and DARA).  If this satisfies or disorients the college and stoner vote and keeps most of them home on Election Day — not that they turn out in great numbers anyway — then Crazy is history.

To quote Mel Gibson's character as he overlooks the slaughter at Camden in The Patriot, "this battle was over before it began."

Jacob Dreizin is an immigrant and a U.S. Army veteran and has worked in Washington, D.C. for most of the last 15 years, to include a few years in lobbying-related work and Democrat politics.  All views expressed are strictly his own.

Image: AFGE via Flickr.

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