Is Michelle Obama the Democratic stealth nominee?
Joe Biden joined 19 other Democrat presidential candidates who appear to be serving as crash dummies until Michelle Obama as America's sixth most popular and second most famous public figure jumps in.
Former vice president Joe Biden's campaign launch was supposed to provide a left-of-center alternative to blunt Republican President Donald Trump's dominance in the key Midwest working-class electoral issues of national sovereignty and economic nationalism.
"Good Old Joe" expected to launch his campaign three weeks ago, following a Washington, D.C. speech to the International Brotherhood of Election Workers union, where he promised to represent traditional liberal and moderate Democrats who want a president who can be bipartisan to get things done and will stand up to the politics that's "gotten so damn elitist."
But "Crazy Joe" then swallowed his foot by trying to make a joke of his "personal connection" style that has included crossing physical boundaries with women, by claiming he had "permission" to hug the union leader who introduced him. Some males chuckled, but the line visibly angered activist women who see "Creepy Joe" as irredeemable.
The YouGov website rated Biden as the 13th most popular and 18th most famous U.S. political public figure. Fans say he is likeable, genuine, and willing to stand up for ordinary people. He enjoys a 47-percent positive and 31-percent negative public opinion. Joe ranked 14th by women and 16th by men; 8th by Millennials,14th by Gen. X, and 22nd by Baby-Boomers.
As a first stop after announcing his candidacy, "Crazy Joe" appeared at a $2,800-a-plate fundraiser at Comcast president David Cohen's Philadelphia mansion. The host committee member included Steven Cozen, who founded and is chairman of the union-busting law firm Cozen O'Connor that advertises how it helps employers: "regain nonunion status when employees indicate they no longer wish to be union-represented."
Even if "Good Old Joe" gets past his fundraising hypocrisy and videos of "Creepy Joe" smelling women's hair and putting hands high around their waists, UVA electoral college expert Larry Sabato predicts: "It's easy to see how Trump can win reelection."
Sabato points out that the last three modern Republican presidents, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush, were able to "capitalize" on the advantages of incumbency that include name recognition, inertia, continuity, control of the instruments of government, great fundraising opportunities, and a successful campaign experience.
YouGov rates Trump as only the 32nd most popular public figure, with a 38-percent positive and a 52-percent negative public opinion. Trump is also ranked only 42nd by women and 24th by men, 57th by Millennials, 33rd by Gen. X, and 25th by Baby-Boomers.
But Sabato warns that traditional polling completely missed the unconventional attractiveness of Donald Trump's 2016 "change" campaign. He expects that Trump's 2020 re-election campaign's "base-first strategy" will focus on pounding home to swing working-class voters how he has delivered America's best job gains and wage growth in 40 years.
The Democratic Party presidential nomination process has been front-loaded in 2020, with California joining eight other states for a March 3 primary. "Super Tuesday" voting will encompass 28.75 percent of the U.S. population, including six of the 16 most populous states.
The Democrats' most negative presidential nominating battles have usually come in June between the top two contestants, long after the marginal candidates have been driven off or run out of campaign funds. But all 20 candidates will have the motivation and the cash to soon go negative and will be savagely slashing at each other in early 2020.
With the feeding frenzy expected to drive down all the Democrat hopefuls' positives by February, Michelle Obama will be perfectly positioned to sweep the nomination as the most popular and most famous Democrat, second only to her husband.
Michelle Obama enjoys an almost identical 56 percent positive to just 31 percent negative public opinion as her husband. But in what could be transformative by uniting the traditional and social activist Democrat Party, Michelle Obama is the Millennials' 1st ranked public figure.