An early word about the Texas elections

According to some national reports, the "Beto" wave is about to turn Texas blue.  This is based on some very good fundraising numbers for Mr. O'Rourke, the very liberal man from South Texas.

Congratulations to Beto, but will it make any difference?  I don't think so.  Let me tell you why:

1. The polls show Senator Cruz ahead of Representative O'Rourke, anywhere from 7 to 11 in the last five polls.  Beto has not hit 45% in a single poll yet.

2. The actual votes cast show that Beto has "problemas" that money can't fix.

Back in March 2018, both sides settled their U.S. Senate choices in the first round.

The first round numbers show that Representative O'Rourke got 642,000 (of the 1 million Democrats who voted) versus 1.3 million that went for Senator Cruz.

We should add that there was no suspense on the GOP side, whereas Mr. O'Rourke spent a lot of money but lost almost 40% of the vote to a couple of strangers.

In other words, I have a lot of friends who skipped the GOP primary on the grounds that there weren't contested races statewide.  Many of these same friends are planning to vote in November.

Like sports, you never assume victory until the game is over.  I'm sure that the Cruz campaign knows that well and will hit the airwaves soon, reminding voters that Beto is a very liberal man.

Last, but not least, let's not forget that the popular Governor Abbott will be on the top of the ticket here.

A Beto wave?  Probably, but not with the people who vote in Texas.

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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