Blue wave getting swept out by red tide

Here in San Diego, surf's up, and everyone is marveling at the beautiful red tide that has given our beaches these amazing, bioluminescent, or glow-in-the-dark, waves.

Scientifically, the blue waves have become a red tide.

What a metaphor.

Polls show that Democrats' favorability to voters on a generic ballot has shrunk to a one point lead.  According to Axios, in a piece headlined:

Reality check: Anti-Trump midterm wave could be more of a ripple

Public support for Democrats is declining, and they may gain seats, but not in anything resembling a much-touted "blue wave."  Axios's cited political consultants say:

The Democrats will almost certainly make gains in the House – Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will gain between 25 and 40 seats, enough to win back control of the chamber.

  • But the Senate math is tougher for them.  Cook predicts Democrats will gain as many as two seats, which would give them control of both chambers, but they may also lose one.
  • And there's no guarantee that the House wave will be strong.  A CNN poll this week found that the Democrats' advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot has gotten weaker, and is now within the margin of error.

Now, there's no reason to ignore or deny the possibility that Democrats will make some gains.  They are energized (to the point of craziness), the pendulum shifts, and money from their fat cats is rolling in.

But color me with more skepticism than Hot Air's Allahpundit has in his worth-reading analysis.  I have two reasons.

One, the election of Donald Trump represented a turning point, a 75-year historic turning point the U.S. has always had in its political makeup.  People support Trump because he represents a real change from the hideousness they've had to put up with.  And, as Peggy Noonan has noted, voters who have cast their support for Trump have mentally "invested" a lot in him.  For many, it was a lot of soul-searching that got them to throw it all to Trump.  They aren't going to let their grip up easily after such a mental investment.

Two, the generic lead has gone from five points, to three points, to one point to...(fill in the blank).  That's a trend.  If the generic lead is evaporating at this speed, it is quite possible that the number will cross over to the Republican favorability side fairly soon because of the direction the generic ballot is clearly taking.  The midterm election is still six months away, so there is time for that to happen.

Combine it with all the mistakes the Democrats are likely to make – from Nancy Pelosi vowing to reverse our tax cuts (when many of us won't even experience them until next year) to Hillary Clinton howling again about deplorables or one of them doing that, to Maxine Waters saying something insane, to Republican poundings on the Soros money and the vagueness of the Democrats' promises, particularly on health care. Democrats are making a lot of mistakes and those are piling up. These mistakes might just keep them on the outs another two years.

We have reason to have hope from and for a coming political red tide. 

Image credit: Mike Sauder via Flickr, Creative Commons SA 2.0.

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