How Cruz wins Iowa, and the nomination

At Nate Silver's, they describe the Republican electorate as a five-ring circus, composed of Libertarian, Tea Party, Evangelical, Establishment, and Moderate voters.  A candidate who can bring three of the rings together will be the winner.  Ted Cruz is the one who's doing it. With his pastor/father Rafael leading the way, Cruz has taken the lead among Iowa religious voters away from Ben Carson.  Their affection for the fervently Christian Carson is not enough to overcome his obvious weakness as a commander in chief.  Santorum and Huckabee are his other competitors in this ring, and neither has Cruz's money or organization.  They're going nowhere, and evangelicals like to go with a winner, just like everyone else.  Cruz now has this bloc firmly in his grasp, and he's not letting go. Marco Rubio is Cruz's main competition for the Tea Party ring, but Rubio is not putting in the time schmoozing with them that...(Read Full Post)