The good news is that we may be on a verge of a wave election where some of the dead wood is removed. Speaking of dead wood, who is the dumbest Democratic Congressman of them all? Two recent nominees:
Congressman Hank Johnson of Georgia, who is concerned that if more US troops move to Guam, the island will tip over. For the record, Manhattan's population density is about 100 times that of Guam. We know Manhattan is tipping left, but over? These new troops are not what Malcolm Gladwell wrote about in "The Tipping Point". Congressman Phil Hare of Illinois, who seems unaware that the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution are separate documents, and that only one is the law of the land. I do not understand why Presidents are limited to 8 years in office, but Congressmen and Senators can spend almost all of their adult lives there. Then again, it is safer than being stationed on Guam. Real Clear Politics provides the current state of the races for the House, Senate, and Governors.
Governors races (currently 24 Republicans, 26 Democrats) are important for Congressional redistricting. Among the big states, GOP candidates are ahead in Pennsylvania Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and competitive in Ohio, California and Illinois.
In the House, Republicans are ahead in 18 Democrat-held seats, and Democrats are ahead in 2 GOP held seats. Among the tossup races are 29 Democrat-held seats, and one GOP-held seat (Illinois 10). Among districts that lean one way or the other (also vulnerable to a switch), are 15 Democrat-held seats, and 3 GOP-held seats.
In total, Democrats are vulnerable in 62 of their seats, and Republicans in 6 of theirs.
There are another 44 seats held by one or the other party that are considered likely to stay that way, but are potentially vulnerable in a wave year: 33 Democrat-held seats, 11 Republican-held seats.
In total. 95 Democratic held seats are in play, 17 for the Republicans.
A net pickup of 40 is required to remove Ms. Pelosi as speaker. Can that happen? I think at the moment, it is slightly more likely than not.
On that note, Speaker Pelosi and Maryland Congressman Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional campaign this year, both failed to sign the recent AIPAC sponsored letter that drew 327 votes in the House. I wonder why? No wonder so many of the Democratic members find it easy to peel off, when the leadership is not there.