The Democrats’ Nomination is Hillary's to Lose

Be afraid, be very afraid.  Barring some serious event in her life, Hillary Clinton likely will be nominated for President of the United States by the Democrat party in mid-July next year.

“Ridiculous,” you say.  “Why, even Bill Maher and Doug Schoen are against her,” you continue.

That is true, but it means nothing.  As do all of the other disparaging stories in the MSM about her public appearances and the possibility of her entry into the race..

Before anyone sweeps the notion her becoming President under the rug, it is important to understand, in the first instance, that, of the current crop of contenders, only Elizabeth Warren has a chance of exiting the Democratic Convention in Miami next July 16th with the nomination in hand.

Let's take a cursory look at the field now before we go into Hillary's entrance and eventual dominance of the race for the nomination.  You may disagree with my opinions, but making the case for anybody else prevailing will be a challenging task for anyone.

One more health- or age-related incident, and Bernie is toast.  He still has an army of supporters, but the health issue will eventually take its toll, especially as Warren vigorously appears in multiple venues and rises in the polls:

...Sanders’ health poses a concern to Democrats....most seriously, given his Oct. 1 heart attack, leaned Democrats divide about evenly, 48-45%, on whether or not Sanders, 78, is in good enough overall health to serve as president. That’s a stark contrast to both Biden, age 76, seen as in good enough health by 74%, and Warren, age 70, seen as healthy by 80%....[But younger] adults, who are among Sanders’ strongest supporters, are most apt to think he’s in good enough health to serve – six in 10 18- to 39-year-olds say so. Just 40% of those age 40 and older agree.

Biden's campaign is on life-support.  In addition to the Ukraine problem, he's having trouble raising money and falling in the polls, he lies constantly, he loses track of what he's saying or where he is, he's often confused, he sometimes talks like he's still in office, and, frankly, he looks like hell!  I'll be amazed if he's still in the race when the December debate rolls around.

Pete Buttigieg is strong in the polls now and seems to have a good strategic plan, but being gay hurts him badly among black, Hispanic, and rural voters.  He will continue to put up a good fight, but he will soon top out as the caucuses and primaries unfold.

Amy Klobuchar is feisty and may well get close to Warren, but only if she can raise enough money.

Tulsi Gabbard will remain a burr under the saddles of everyone and might do very serious damage to Bernie and/or Biden at the upcoming debate on the 20th of this month, but she has no chance of coming close to Warren as time passes.

Kamala Harris' campaign is crumbling, and she will soon go the way of the skate-boarder from El Paso.

Spartacus Booker will never be taken seriously.

Andrew Yang also has a big army of donating supporters and may well stay in the race for several more months, but he will never come close to Warren in the polls.

Julián Castro will also soon run out of money, but that's OK with him because he probably knows that he's going to be Hillary's running mate.

Mr. Steyer has tons of his own money, but he'll always be “Tom Who?” to voters.

That's the sorry lot going to Atlanta on the 20th of this month.  I don't think anyone else will qualify, and I do not think that a rational argument can put the nomination in the hands of any of the current wannabes other than Warren.

Hillary's going to get in and dominate when she does because the field is so pitiful.  The aside about Bloomberg is also important because he wants to get in, and Washington wants him to get in.  I think he's waiting to see what Hillary will do.  I also think that, despite his wealth and prominence, he has doubts that he can get enough delegates to win before the Convention should it come to his getting in.

So, I think that where we stand is that Elizabeth Warren is on track to securing the nomination in early Spring.

At some point Democrats will realize that this cannot be allowed to happen.  Her ideas are just too radical.  She is a serial fabulist from her Cherokee heritage to her non-elopement to her father's occupation to her leaving of a teaching job to what next!  She scares Wall Street.  She's for open borders, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, gun confiscation buy-back, and the most leftward position on every issue.

Enter Hillary.

She's personally unpopular, unlikable, and often looks like a rag-doll..  She's a poor candidate who ran a horrible campaign in 2016 in part because she thought she had a lock and in part because she can't be bothered to run a strong campaign.  After all, she waltzed to victory in New York's Senate race and was waltzing to victory in 2008 ntil Ted Kennedy realized that Obama's running would give him, Kennedy, the congressional majority he needed to get the Healthcare plan he'd been wishing for since forever.

Dick Morris all but says Hillary believes not only that she is entitled to the Presidency but that it is for her  a divine imperative.  Her lust for the office is at best sensual, even... well, you can fill in that blank.

Once Hillary declares (maybe even before), Democrats will flock to her because the Democrats will realize that only she has a chance to defeat Trump, whom they universally despise:

Former San Francisco mayor and California State Assembly speaker Willie Brown has declared that only Hillary Clinton can defeat President Donald Trump in 2020....“Depression over the current field was swirling through my head the other day,” Brown wrote....“Think about it. Hillary is still the smartest of the bunch. She’s also better known than any of the candidates, so she doesn’t need a lot of money....[and] is the only candidate short of Barack Obama who has the brains, the battle-tested brawn and the national presence to take out Trump. And Obama can’t run....”

Gone will be calls for her to stay out of it.  Gone will be all misgivings about her suitability and all else that would militate against her again getting on the stage, and polls, as in 2016, will be overwhelmingly in her favor.  However, this time those polls might hold up through the wee hours following Election Day, the 3rd of November next:

If Hillary Clinton entered the presidential race today, she would essentially be vying to be the frontrunner.  Despite some 20 candidates competing for the nomination, a weak media-appointed leading candidate is providing an opportunity for the 2016 loser to rethink getting into the race.  A new poll from Harvard Harris finds Clinton nipping at the heels of Joe Biden in a hypothetical match up. Hillary, so far, has not declared her candidacy, though she has repeatedly teased the idea.... What this poll finds is that if Clinton were to enter the race, roughly one-half of Biden’s supporters would drop him for Hillary.

Yes, some will then argue that Michelle Obama should get in, but that's the last thing she and Barack want.  For them, they're on Easy Street now with what G. H. W. Bush called CAVU (ceiling and visibility unlimited) forever!  Here's an excellent piece on that by Liz Peek, but I must caution that there's unfortunate auto-play embedded.

Hillary may not enter the convention with a majority of delegates pledged to her, but she doesn’t have to in order to win. If no one wins a majority on the first ballot, the superdelegates, roughly 16% of the total delegates and almost a third of a majority, become eligible to vote on the nomination in the second ballot and beyond, while the delegates pledged to nominees become free to change their support. The superdelegates are party pros and office holders, and the vast majority, who built their careers over the same period that Hillary and Bill Clinton did,  can be expected to support Hillary.  The momentum that they add to Hillary, along with the poor prospects of the hard left candidates, will be enough to hand her the top of the ticket. Again.

Image credit: Steve Jurveston

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