Obama Losing Voter Support in Green and Blue States

I just received some very interesting results from a poll I commissioned with IBOPE Zogby International. 

While it is well-known that President Obama is losing voter support nationwide, the lesser known fact is that the President's support is eroding among two key voter groups:  Democratic Blue states and battleground Green states.  The Zogby poll question asked:  "Do you think President Obama deserves to be re-elected or do you think it is time for someone new?"

Overall, a 54% majority of voters say it is time for someone new in the White House, and just 40% say that Obama deserves re-election.  That's certainly bad news for the President, however, an even worse trend is developing.

One month ago, just 41% of voters from Green states said they would vote to re-elect Obama, and today that number has plunged four percentage points to 37%.  A sizeable 56% of Green state voters say it is time to elect someone new to the Oval Office.  These Green states are the crucial states that President Obama won in 2008 but are now considered in play as a result of Republican gains in the 2010 election.

The President's support among Blue state voters is eroding quickly as well.  One month ago, 47% of Blue state voters said they would vote to re-elect Obama and 47% said it was time for someone new.  Today, a plurality of Blue state voters (49%) say it is time for someone new and just 44% say Obama deserves re-election.

These new poll results clearly show that President Obama can be defeated in 2012, but only if the eventual Republican candidate runs on the issues and resists the temptation to run against Obama the person.  Even then, and despite these poor poll numbers, Obama should still be considered the odds-on favorite in 2012.  The reasons for this are three-fold:

1) There still could be a third-party candidate.

2) Obama has a $1 billion fundraising goal and he has 14 months to accomplish it.  On the other hand, his Republican challenger can't start raising money for a general campaign until September 2012, and then he or she will only have 60 days to compete with Obama and try and match his war chest.

3) The national press seems to still be enamored with Obama, and will spend the next 16 months convincing the public that he should be re-elected.  Over on the Republican side, there will be at least 12 Republican voices competing for media over the next 15 months.

If you read the polling data and analysis in my new book, How Obama Can Be Defeated in 2012, which I co-authored with Dr. Jerome Corsi, you'll see that on all of the major issues, 75% of voters disagree with President Obama.  You'll also discover that two-thirds of voters reject his vision for the future of America and the cost we'll have to pay to achieve his vision.

For example:

  • 59% of voters disagree with Obama's desire to borrow more money to spend on education, infrastructure and technology.
  • 87% of voters want teachers unions to get rid of their tenure system and fire bad teachers.  Just 7% want to keep the tenure system.
  • 79% of voters disagree with the federal government regulating Internet access and content.
  • 62% of voters think Obama should be reducing spending and balance the budget.
  • 69% of voters are opposed to Congress raising the debt limit.
  • 63% of voters disapprove of Obama's use of stimulus money to try to create jobs for the small business community.
  • 58% of voters support a law that would grant citizens with permits to carry a firearm in the thirty-nine states that have reciprocal agreements in place for concealed carry permits, to carry a firearm in all of those states.
  • 51% of voters would support a filibuster should the President appoint a Supreme Court justice that would change the current make-up of the Court.
  • 59% of voters disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.
  • 58% of Americans think that Obamacare is unconstitutional.

Go to www.BarackObamaTest.com where you can see for yourself where you and the rest of the American public stand in relation to Obama on the issues.

The Poll was conducted by IBOPE Zogby International and surveyed 2,013 likely voters from June 17-21, 2011.  The Poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points. 

Red states:  AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Blue states:  CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NV, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA

Green states:  FL, IN, IA, MI, MO, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Brad O'Leary is publisher of The O'Leary Report, a bestselling author, and is a former NBC Westwood One talk show host. To interview Brad about his new book, "How Obama Can Be Defeated in 2012," co-authored with Dr. Jerome Corsi, please contact Tim Bueler at (530) 401-3285 or mediatimbueler@aol.com.

I just received some very interesting results from a poll I commissioned with IBOPE Zogby International. 

While it is well-known that President Obama is losing voter support nationwide, the lesser known fact is that the President's support is eroding among two key voter groups:  Democratic Blue states and battleground Green states.  The Zogby poll question asked:  "Do you think President Obama deserves to be re-elected or do you think it is time for someone new?"

Overall, a 54% majority of voters say it is time for someone new in the White House, and just 40% say that Obama deserves re-election.  That's certainly bad news for the President, however, an even worse trend is developing.

One month ago, just 41% of voters from Green states said they would vote to re-elect Obama, and today that number has plunged four percentage points to 37%.  A sizeable 56% of Green state voters say it is time to elect someone new to the Oval Office.  These Green states are the crucial states that President Obama won in 2008 but are now considered in play as a result of Republican gains in the 2010 election.

The President's support among Blue state voters is eroding quickly as well.  One month ago, 47% of Blue state voters said they would vote to re-elect Obama and 47% said it was time for someone new.  Today, a plurality of Blue state voters (49%) say it is time for someone new and just 44% say Obama deserves re-election.

These new poll results clearly show that President Obama can be defeated in 2012, but only if the eventual Republican candidate runs on the issues and resists the temptation to run against Obama the person.  Even then, and despite these poor poll numbers, Obama should still be considered the odds-on favorite in 2012.  The reasons for this are three-fold:

1) There still could be a third-party candidate.

2) Obama has a $1 billion fundraising goal and he has 14 months to accomplish it.  On the other hand, his Republican challenger can't start raising money for a general campaign until September 2012, and then he or she will only have 60 days to compete with Obama and try and match his war chest.

3) The national press seems to still be enamored with Obama, and will spend the next 16 months convincing the public that he should be re-elected.  Over on the Republican side, there will be at least 12 Republican voices competing for media over the next 15 months.

If you read the polling data and analysis in my new book, How Obama Can Be Defeated in 2012, which I co-authored with Dr. Jerome Corsi, you'll see that on all of the major issues, 75% of voters disagree with President Obama.  You'll also discover that two-thirds of voters reject his vision for the future of America and the cost we'll have to pay to achieve his vision.

For example:

  • 59% of voters disagree with Obama's desire to borrow more money to spend on education, infrastructure and technology.
  • 87% of voters want teachers unions to get rid of their tenure system and fire bad teachers.  Just 7% want to keep the tenure system.
  • 79% of voters disagree with the federal government regulating Internet access and content.
  • 62% of voters think Obama should be reducing spending and balance the budget.
  • 69% of voters are opposed to Congress raising the debt limit.
  • 63% of voters disapprove of Obama's use of stimulus money to try to create jobs for the small business community.
  • 58% of voters support a law that would grant citizens with permits to carry a firearm in the thirty-nine states that have reciprocal agreements in place for concealed carry permits, to carry a firearm in all of those states.
  • 51% of voters would support a filibuster should the President appoint a Supreme Court justice that would change the current make-up of the Court.
  • 59% of voters disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.
  • 58% of Americans think that Obamacare is unconstitutional.

Go to www.BarackObamaTest.com where you can see for yourself where you and the rest of the American public stand in relation to Obama on the issues.

The Poll was conducted by IBOPE Zogby International and surveyed 2,013 likely voters from June 17-21, 2011.  The Poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.2 percentage points. 

Red states:  AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Blue states:  CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NV, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA

Green states:  FL, IN, IA, MI, MO, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Brad O'Leary is publisher of The O'Leary Report, a bestselling author, and is a former NBC Westwood One talk show host. To interview Brad about his new book, "How Obama Can Be Defeated in 2012," co-authored with Dr. Jerome Corsi, please contact Tim Bueler at (530) 401-3285 or mediatimbueler@aol.com.

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