Is there really going to be a recession?
We're starting to hear all this recession talk recently from "major" players in the financial industry, who are normally wrong on purpose. This time, though, their predictions seem very far afield from what we're seeing in the marketplace.
Per Motley Fool, an investment website, here's what happens leading into and during a recession. (The video should be cued to begin at 1:45.)
I've summarized the eight points and added my comments about how things differ this year:
One: Stocks drop. Normally, they start dropping about six months before a recession and start rebounding about six months before the recession is over. The average drop is 20–30%, and it takes an average of 18 months for recovery. The dot-com crash was a 50% drop, and it took five years to recover.
However, stocks are where they were a year ago right now. This is not exactly a crash after the big money bought cheap during the "virus" and drove things back up and to new highs during the "recovery." Right now, we're in earnings season and coming to the end of the time when people need to sell things to be able to pay income taxes. This happens every year. Duh.
Two: Interest rates drop. Um, that's not happening right now. The Fed has the markets under constant threat of "aggressive" increases to "combat inflation." And then...da-da-DUM...Super Fed to the rescue.
Three: Bonds go up when rates go down. But it depends on the type and quality of the bonds. The problem now is that government bonds aren't all that trustworthy, nor are corporate bonds, especially from the companies where the boards have been replaced by "wokesters" thanks to you giving the Exchange-Traded Fund companies your voting proxy without your knowledge so they can do "Socially Responsible Investing."
This rule needs to be changed so we can edge back toward a board's fiduciary responsibility of, well, making money for the stockholders. Where are the lawsuits from conservative millionaires and billionaires? By not suing, they have joined the wokesters.
Four: The price of your house tends to go up. Again, that's not happening right now. Home prices have been down for each of the last five months.
Five: Inflation generally goes down. And again, not happening right now. Nor is it in the foreseeable future, as there is less stuff to be bought, more taxpayer and printed-out-of-thin-air money being forced on the economy, and a staged war going on.
Six: Unemployment goes up an average of 2.4%. Once more, not happening right now. People are going back to work due to their having run out of benefits, inflation, debt, etc., etc.
Seven: Employer benefits go down. Not happening right now. It's still tough to find workers, so benefits are competitive and increasing.
Eight: Stocks go back up, and the economy will recover, but you can't wait until the recession recovers to start buying stocks, or you will miss the entry. Hmmm. If we have no supplies coming from China, and we can't make our own stuff, will the stock market recover this time?
There's always that last time where things don't work out...especially when it's planned and controlled by China, by usurped governments, by fake non-government organizations (like the WHO, U.N., CDC, World Economic Forum, and IMF, and Soros's Open Societies, and the Ford Foundation [why people keep buying Fords I'll never understand], etc., etc., etc.).
So five and a half of the eight indicators tied to a recession and recovery aren't happening. Are the banks and other "major" players who are "signaling" recession just stupid? No, they've been doing this for decades...talking the markets down so they can get a better price...buy low, sell high, rinse, repeat.
The problem now is that people like Warren Buffett, George Soros, Billybob Gates, etc. can now plan the bubbles and the bursts in advance. Meanwhile, you, quite literally, will end up owning nothing and being forced to like it because they are scaring you and buying it all out from under you.
Carl Henry is a pseudonym.