Biden’s proposed Iran deal will fail
C’mon man! When was the last time you successfully stuffed a genie back into the bottle? Or convinced a conman to complete the kitchen remodel after you fully paid him upfront? Iran already has gotten just about everything it wanted from this agreement, and the United States almost nothing. It’s fourth and 85 yards with 12 seconds left in the game, and the kicker went out with a twisted knee in the third quarter. Enough metaphors there, I think, to get the point across.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) limited Iran’s enrichment of uranium to a mere 3.67%. They are almost up to 20% which means that about 80% of the work required to enrich to 90% is done. Iran could have weapons-grade uranium on hand in a matter of weeks.
During the campaign, the Democratic candidates uniformly castigated President Trump for pulling out of the JCPOA. Somehow, they seemed to believe that one-sided adherence to terms ensured the viability of a two-party agreement. Even their platform appears to acknowledge Iran as a reliable partner in world affairs. “Democrats will . . . prioritize nuclear diplomacy, de-escalation, and regional dialogue.” Regional dialogue? Since the rise of the ayatollahs, Iran has managed to take a dump on just about everyone in the neighborhood. Right now too, Iran is a dumpster fire of human rights abuses.
“Democrats . . . believe the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remains the best means to verifiably cut off all of Iran’s pathways to a nuclear bomb.” Nuclear bombs, in general, require at least 90% enriched fissile material, missiles, launch platforms, and a guidance system, depending on the type of attack envisioned. This past week Iran has been playing with drones that can stand in for both missiles and platforms, and that have remote guidance systems. Today’s oil shipping traffic to Venezuela gives it land-based potential in the Americas, as well as ship-based. If they plan for low-tech delivery of a dirty bomb or an EMP attack, the need for a precise guidance system may be moot, if detonation in a general area is ensured. Let’s be realistic -- Iran has too many pathways to a nuclear attack on the United States for the JCPOA to cut them all off.
Biden proposes that Iran adhere to all the original terms of the agreement, for the specified lengths of time. The E3 says Iran must walk back the level of enrichment already achieved. Iran plans to tease this out without ever making a commitment, and kick out inspectors unless sanctions are lifted while demanding strict and immediate capitulation to its desires. The New York Post Editorial Board, quoting Henry Kissinger, asks that Biden rethink his position on this. Biden, however, is renowned for his consistent inability to make the right decision in the field of foreign affairs.
The Democrats firmly oppose regime change, perhaps the only hope the world has of avoiding a hostile nuclear Iran. Thus they will leave Iran free to continue to shoot its protestors in the street, hang its athletes against the sky, and wage micro-wars all over the place with no effective opposition.
Iran’s warmongering against its neighbors, provocative aggressions against commerce in international waters, and its support for terrorism are being addressed. President Trump is leaving in place a clear set of sanctions, as well as an understanding on Iran’s part that the United States no longer makes idle threats in the region. Perhaps starting there, and moving forward, some progress may be made to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions. Think about it Joe, for all of us.
Hat tip to United Against Nuclear Iran, an excellent site keeping a very close watch on all things related to Iran.
Anony Mee is a retired public servant.
IMAGE: Iran has secret atomic sites. YouTube screengrab.