We already know who lost the election: MSM pollsters

A week and a half ago, pollster Frank Luntz...

... told Fox News on Thursday night that if poll predictions are wrong about the 2020 election between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, his "profession is done" in terms of faith and confidence from the public.

It's time to stick a fork into Frank.  He's done.

It may be uncertain who will win, what with Democrats shutting vote-counting overnight in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania in order to determine how many votes they need to "discover" so as to hand their Electoral College votes to Biden, but the mainstream pollsters were all wrong.  Hilariously so, in some cases.

The Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls had Biden ahead in the popular vote by 7.2%


With votes yet to be counted, the margin favoring Biden is 1.6%, a difference of 5.8%.  Whatever the final vote is, there is no "blue wave," no Biden landslide, and the call by Nate Silver of a 90% chance of a Biden victory looks overstated.  But fortunately for Silver, The Economist went even farther, offering a 97% probability of a Biden victory.

But for the worst clown show, the Washington Post and ABC take the prize:


Wisconsin is all but a dead heat according to the latest AP count.


Nobody should greet a future poll from the Washington Post/AP with anything but scorn.

It now appears likely that the Senate will remain in GOP control, something that contradicts a number of state-level polls.

As is so often the case, Mark Steyn sums it up well:

This is on course to be the biggest turnout in a US election since 1896. That means that all the turnout models are junk, which is why the polls are junk. It also means that the "national" poll number — which, as a practical matter, is meaningless but the easiest to poll, and the one on which the pollsters preserved a measure of semi-credibility in 2016 — is this time going to be as way off as other polls. Whatever happens in the electoral college, Joe Biden is not going to win the popular vote by anything like the polls have been saying for months.

The pollsters are quack soothsayers purporting to be able to read entrails while not even putting the germane entrails in the pot.

Update: I need to add that the Trafalgar and IDP national polls were pretty accurate, and that the Iowa Poll for the Senate race was spot-on accurate.  So it isn't that polling is impossible; it is that most MSM pollsters are bad at their jobs.

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