Biden's vote tallies and Benford's Law

Benford's Law "states that the leading digits in a collection of data set are probably going to be small."  It has frequently been applied to election results to identify signs of manipulation — for example, the general elections in India in 2014 and 2019.  Gateway Pundit has an article showing a normal Benford distribution and Biden's vote tallies.  Here is what a normal Benford distribution looks like:

Image: Gknor, Wikimedia

This article has detailed instructions for creating your own Benford charts.  I did so with the totals for Biden and for Trump for each ward in Milwaukee published by Milwaukee City Wire on Thursday, 5 November 2020.  Clearly, making a Benford chart from a dataset with just a dozen or so datapoints would be inconclusive.  There are 325 voting wards in Milwaukee, so it is not a small dataset.

Here is the graph for Trump's Milwaukee votes:

And here is the graph for Biden's Milwaukee votes:

Again, compare both graphs with the normal Benford distribution above.  In other words, Biden's totals suggest intervention.

Is this evidence dispositive, as the lawyers are wont to say?  No.  But Gateway Pundit notes that anyone who retweeted the article or posted it to Facebook had his account locked.  Not merely identified with a warning message saying the contents were unverified, but account locked.  Jack Dorsey (Twitter) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) do not want you to even think about statistics.

I mean, really, what will you deplorable dupes think of next?  George W. Bush got on board, congratulating Biden on his victory on Saturday.  That would be the George W. Bush who mounted legal challenges and demanded recounts for 37 days before being declared the winner.

Henry Percy is the nom de guerre of a writer in Arizona. He may be reached at saler.50d[at]gmail.com.

Benford's Law "states that the leading digits in a collection of data set are probably going to be small."  It has frequently been applied to election results to identify signs of manipulation — for example, the general elections in India in 2014 and 2019.  Gateway Pundit has an article showing a normal Benford distribution and Biden's vote tallies.  Here is what a normal Benford distribution looks like:

Image: Gknor, Wikimedia

This article has detailed instructions for creating your own Benford charts.  I did so with the totals for Biden and for Trump for each ward in Milwaukee published by Milwaukee City Wire on Thursday, 5 November 2020.  Clearly, making a Benford chart from a dataset with just a dozen or so datapoints would be inconclusive.  There are 325 voting wards in Milwaukee, so it is not a small dataset.

Here is the graph for Trump's Milwaukee votes:

And here is the graph for Biden's Milwaukee votes:

Again, compare both graphs with the normal Benford distribution above.  In other words, Biden's totals suggest intervention.

Is this evidence dispositive, as the lawyers are wont to say?  No.  But Gateway Pundit notes that anyone who retweeted the article or posted it to Facebook had his account locked.  Not merely identified with a warning message saying the contents were unverified, but account locked.  Jack Dorsey (Twitter) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) do not want you to even think about statistics.

I mean, really, what will you deplorable dupes think of next?  George W. Bush got on board, congratulating Biden on his victory on Saturday.  That would be the George W. Bush who mounted legal challenges and demanded recounts for 37 days before being declared the winner.

Henry Percy is the nom de guerre of a writer in Arizona. He may be reached at saler.50d[at]gmail.com.