It has started: Biden sliding downward in the polls

After a week of gaffes, it's happened. Joe Biden is dropping in the polls. According to Newsweek:

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump has fallen by three points over the last week, according to new polling data.

The latest survey by Reuters and Ipsos found that Biden led Trump by six points among registered voters, with 45 percent backing the challenger and 39 percent favoring the incumbent.

The former vice president also had a four-point lead among Independent voters. A third of the group (33 percent) said they would back Biden, while 29 percent said the same of Trump.

Which is the start of some kind of trend given the size of the drop. For months, Biden has inexplicably out-polled President Trump and it was strange stuff, given that even the better pollsters, such as IBD/TIPP were seeing this.

What it sound like now is voters are paying attention. They're starting get a good look at this pig-in-a poke and they're not liking what they see. Three points in a week from a 48% base represents a 6%* drop. That signals a shift, given that the poll numbers have been largely steady until now.

What fostered the drop? Three things stand out:

One, Biden insulted black voters as an old white man declaring that either they voted for him or they weren't black. He made no meaningful apology in the wake of it -- his press secretary tried to declare it a joke, and when that didn't work Biden said he was sorry and declared his words 'cavalier,' which was a little piummy. Additional fallout came from radio host Charlamagne tha God, who said Biden was going to "depress" voter turnout. To say the least. Biden can't win without the black vote and here he was, insulting them

There also was his big Memorial Day appearance where he came out of his basement isolation to lay a wreath. His halting gait, his dark glasses, combined with his sepuchral COVID-19 mask gave him the look of the thing that came from the crypt. Not exactly a look the voters flock to. Even media bigfeet such as Brit Hume, No wonder he's falling in the polls.

There's also a third factor - the odious comparison. Biden's rival is President Trump, who has performed in a stellar manner in his crisis leadership, as well as looked like a leader in his public appearances, mask or no mask. He made no gaffes as Biden might have in his appearance before Michigan's autoworkers, for instance.

Better still, the economy is showing signs of a v-shaped recovery, coming back quickly after a long period of being locked down. That matters because voters are starting to get their hopes back. Biden, by contrast, remains the bug-like face of the lockdown.

For Biden, this looks like the beginning of the end. Biden has blown too many chances and squandered too many voter bases to ever really gain momentum at this point. His numbers are starting to turn around and if history is any indicator, they will keep moving in this direction.

It's like the curve for him has suddenly flattened.

Image credit: Twitter screen shot

*The journalist-math in the item above has been corrected, thanks to alert reader Martin.

After a week of gaffes, it's happened. Joe Biden is dropping in the polls. According to Newsweek:

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump has fallen by three points over the last week, according to new polling data.

The latest survey by Reuters and Ipsos found that Biden led Trump by six points among registered voters, with 45 percent backing the challenger and 39 percent favoring the incumbent.

The former vice president also had a four-point lead among Independent voters. A third of the group (33 percent) said they would back Biden, while 29 percent said the same of Trump.

Which is the start of some kind of trend given the size of the drop. For months, Biden has inexplicably out-polled President Trump and it was strange stuff, given that even the better pollsters, such as IBD/TIPP were seeing this.

What it sound like now is voters are paying attention. They're starting get a good look at this pig-in-a poke and they're not liking what they see. Three points in a week from a 48% base represents a 6%* drop. That signals a shift, given that the poll numbers have been largely steady until now.

What fostered the drop? Three things stand out:

One, Biden insulted black voters as an old white man declaring that either they voted for him or they weren't black. He made no meaningful apology in the wake of it -- his press secretary tried to declare it a joke, and when that didn't work Biden said he was sorry and declared his words 'cavalier,' which was a little piummy. Additional fallout came from radio host Charlamagne tha God, who said Biden was going to "depress" voter turnout. To say the least. Biden can't win without the black vote and here he was, insulting them

There also was his big Memorial Day appearance where he came out of his basement isolation to lay a wreath. His halting gait, his dark glasses, combined with his sepuchral COVID-19 mask gave him the look of the thing that came from the crypt. Not exactly a look the voters flock to. Even media bigfeet such as Brit Hume, No wonder he's falling in the polls.

There's also a third factor - the odious comparison. Biden's rival is President Trump, who has performed in a stellar manner in his crisis leadership, as well as looked like a leader in his public appearances, mask or no mask. He made no gaffes as Biden might have in his appearance before Michigan's autoworkers, for instance.

Better still, the economy is showing signs of a v-shaped recovery, coming back quickly after a long period of being locked down. That matters because voters are starting to get their hopes back. Biden, by contrast, remains the bug-like face of the lockdown.

For Biden, this looks like the beginning of the end. Biden has blown too many chances and squandered too many voter bases to ever really gain momentum at this point. His numbers are starting to turn around and if history is any indicator, they will keep moving in this direction.

It's like the curve for him has suddenly flattened.

Image credit: Twitter screen shot

*The journalist-math in the item above has been corrected, thanks to alert reader Martin.