Professor Lichtman's circular logic about who gets elected in 2020

Professor Allan Lichtman of American University is a bright liberal, and his point-scale system for predicting who will win the next presidential election makes a certain amount of sense. 

Now he's predicting a Democrat victory if the Democrats would just, just, just, impeach President Trump, something that gives fuel to the crazy fringe of the Democratic Party. According to Real Clear Politics, citing CNN:

Professor Allan Lichtman, the man who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, said President Trump is on track for another term unless Democrats do what is "politically right" and impeach him. In an interview with CNN's Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday, he said, "It's a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional, and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right."

Lichtman's logic is that if a president has 'scandal' as part of his profile, among a certain number of other negative points from his list, he's a goner.

Right now, based on my system, there has to be six negative factors against the party holding the White House, the Trump party to predict their defeat. They're down only three. But an impeachment would nail down the scandal key, a fourth key, it might trigger other keys like a real challenge to his re-nomination or a third party, enough to defeat him. 

And let's not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House. It involves public hearings, as part of the impeachment inquiry. And what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements. Now Richard Nixon before the public revelations was at 67 percent approval. It was public revelations of his misdeeds that drove him down to 25 percent. 

And for that, Licthtman's garnering oodles of positive press, from the leftist establishment. Who doesn't like good news?

Here's the problem: There is no scandal. Democrats are trying to manufacture a scandal based on things that never happened, and then react to the 'scandal' they invented as a means of gaining political power. Call it a fake scandal. The Mueller report cleared President Trump of any collusion with the Russians and Trump started rising in the polls. That was why Robert Mueller tried to jump in the other day and swing things back to negative. Perception is reality. Yet Democrats can impeach Trump all they like and still not be able to pin a true scandal on him. Did Trump offer pay to play arrangements with the Russians as Hillary Clinton did? Did he plot with prosecutors on some tarmac somewhere to keep himself out of the dock? Did he spy on Americans and reporters? Any potential impeachment would have to be an invented impeachment and a lot of voters are going to get angry. 

Fact is, Democrats themselves are the scandal. It was their administration that unmasked Americans, spied on the press, sent allies to spy on President Trump and his lieutenants, abused the FISA warrant process, destroyed documents, exposed classified information to hackers and perverts such as Anthony Weiner. Trump never did any of those things, not even close.

One can just see Democrats going down Lichtman's list and saying to themselves: How can we add one more negative to the list to make sure Trump doesn't get reelected? Now that they can't find a scandal, they focus on making one up .

It won't work. Trump is a black swan in U.S. politics and his administration regularly defies political conventions and 'rules.'

Making up a scandal just to get a box ticked on the good professor's list isn't what the list is meant to be about. But even Lichtman is engaging in this wishful thinking, egging the left on to impeach.

.It's not a scandal if the president's enemies are claiming that, prof.

Professor Allan Lichtman of American University is a bright liberal, and his point-scale system for predicting who will win the next presidential election makes a certain amount of sense. 

Now he's predicting a Democrat victory if the Democrats would just, just, just, impeach President Trump, something that gives fuel to the crazy fringe of the Democratic Party. According to Real Clear Politics, citing CNN:

Professor Allan Lichtman, the man who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, said President Trump is on track for another term unless Democrats do what is "politically right" and impeach him. In an interview with CNN's Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday, he said, "It's a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional, and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right."

Lichtman's logic is that if a president has 'scandal' as part of his profile, among a certain number of other negative points from his list, he's a goner.

Right now, based on my system, there has to be six negative factors against the party holding the White House, the Trump party to predict their defeat. They're down only three. But an impeachment would nail down the scandal key, a fourth key, it might trigger other keys like a real challenge to his re-nomination or a third party, enough to defeat him. 

And let's not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House. It involves public hearings, as part of the impeachment inquiry. And what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements. Now Richard Nixon before the public revelations was at 67 percent approval. It was public revelations of his misdeeds that drove him down to 25 percent. 

And for that, Licthtman's garnering oodles of positive press, from the leftist establishment. Who doesn't like good news?

Here's the problem: There is no scandal. Democrats are trying to manufacture a scandal based on things that never happened, and then react to the 'scandal' they invented as a means of gaining political power. Call it a fake scandal. The Mueller report cleared President Trump of any collusion with the Russians and Trump started rising in the polls. That was why Robert Mueller tried to jump in the other day and swing things back to negative. Perception is reality. Yet Democrats can impeach Trump all they like and still not be able to pin a true scandal on him. Did Trump offer pay to play arrangements with the Russians as Hillary Clinton did? Did he plot with prosecutors on some tarmac somewhere to keep himself out of the dock? Did he spy on Americans and reporters? Any potential impeachment would have to be an invented impeachment and a lot of voters are going to get angry. 

Fact is, Democrats themselves are the scandal. It was their administration that unmasked Americans, spied on the press, sent allies to spy on President Trump and his lieutenants, abused the FISA warrant process, destroyed documents, exposed classified information to hackers and perverts such as Anthony Weiner. Trump never did any of those things, not even close.

One can just see Democrats going down Lichtman's list and saying to themselves: How can we add one more negative to the list to make sure Trump doesn't get reelected? Now that they can't find a scandal, they focus on making one up .

It won't work. Trump is a black swan in U.S. politics and his administration regularly defies political conventions and 'rules.'

Making up a scandal just to get a box ticked on the good professor's list isn't what the list is meant to be about. But even Lichtman is engaging in this wishful thinking, egging the left on to impeach.

.It's not a scandal if the president's enemies are claiming that, prof.