Three likely scenarios for the Kavanaugh saga

As of this writing, the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court is up in the air.  Here are three likely scenarios of how this might play out.

Scenario 1.  After the Jeff Flake-induced FBI investigation, Kavanaugh is approved by the full Senate by a narrow vote.  This is assuming that this latest FBI investigation turns up nothing negative on Judge Kavanaugh.  Yes, one or two Republicans might defect and vote "no," but they could be offset by two or more Democrats voting for confirmation.

The Republican squishes included Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska).  The possible Democrats voting for confirmation are those from the red states who are up for re-election in November.  The most likely "yes" votes are from Joe Donnelly (Indiana), Claire McCaskill (Missouri), and Joe Manchin (West Virginia).  Although he's not up for re-election until 2020, Doug Jones (Alabama) should be added to this list.  Alabama is a deeply conservative state, and Jones knows he won in a fluke election.  A "no" vote of Kavanaugh would end his political career.

Scenario 2.  If something happens and the votes are not there for confirmation after the FBI investigation, Mitch McConnell will sit on the vote until after November.  This is the hope of the Democrats.  But for this hope to bear fruit, the GOP would also have to lose the Senate in November.  If not and if red-state senators lose because of opposing Kavanaugh (and common decency), then Kavanaugh will get confirmed in January, and the country will have a stronger Republican Senate.  A win-win outcome.

Scenario 3.  As unlikely as this prospect is, it still must be mentioned.  The Kavanaugh confirmation stalls prior to November, and the Democrats take control of the Senate in November.  This is what the Democrats are betting on.  It's a situation that could lead to a) gridlock and maybe an eight-member Supreme Court until after 2022 or b) the appointment of a compromise "moderate" to the court.  Under this scenario, Ruth Bader Ginsburg might well feel that it is safe to retire.  

What is the likely long-term outcome for the despicable behavior of the Democratic Party in opposing Brett Kavanaugh?  For one thing, the Democrat antics are so vile that it has to be turning off a fair number of moderates and undecided voters, no matter how the liberal media spin it otherwise. 

And what of the Democrat base?  Ask yourself, who are the most critical part of the Democrat coalition in terms of votes?  It's not the abortion-loving feminists, although these shrills make the most noise.  It's the blacks.  Truth be told, none of what is going on in the Senate will motivate minorities to go out and vote.  In fact, it may deter them, as the show they're seeing has an innate stink to it.

How does this confirmation process affect the Republican and conservative base?  No doubt, if the Republican Senate votes down Kavanaugh, the GOP will suffer terribly.  But this is not likely, given that McConnell will not schedule a vote if he doesn't have the numbers.  If the Kavanaugh vote is merely postponed until after the election, the base will be energized to vote Republican.  Even the establishment Bush people will come out and vote Republican, as Kavanaugh is a Bush-type guy.

Pick your scenario.  Mine is the first one – Kavanaugh gets narrowly confirmed before November.

As of this writing, the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court is up in the air.  Here are three likely scenarios of how this might play out.

Scenario 1.  After the Jeff Flake-induced FBI investigation, Kavanaugh is approved by the full Senate by a narrow vote.  This is assuming that this latest FBI investigation turns up nothing negative on Judge Kavanaugh.  Yes, one or two Republicans might defect and vote "no," but they could be offset by two or more Democrats voting for confirmation.

The Republican squishes included Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska).  The possible Democrats voting for confirmation are those from the red states who are up for re-election in November.  The most likely "yes" votes are from Joe Donnelly (Indiana), Claire McCaskill (Missouri), and Joe Manchin (West Virginia).  Although he's not up for re-election until 2020, Doug Jones (Alabama) should be added to this list.  Alabama is a deeply conservative state, and Jones knows he won in a fluke election.  A "no" vote of Kavanaugh would end his political career.

Scenario 2.  If something happens and the votes are not there for confirmation after the FBI investigation, Mitch McConnell will sit on the vote until after November.  This is the hope of the Democrats.  But for this hope to bear fruit, the GOP would also have to lose the Senate in November.  If not and if red-state senators lose because of opposing Kavanaugh (and common decency), then Kavanaugh will get confirmed in January, and the country will have a stronger Republican Senate.  A win-win outcome.

Scenario 3.  As unlikely as this prospect is, it still must be mentioned.  The Kavanaugh confirmation stalls prior to November, and the Democrats take control of the Senate in November.  This is what the Democrats are betting on.  It's a situation that could lead to a) gridlock and maybe an eight-member Supreme Court until after 2022 or b) the appointment of a compromise "moderate" to the court.  Under this scenario, Ruth Bader Ginsburg might well feel that it is safe to retire.  

What is the likely long-term outcome for the despicable behavior of the Democratic Party in opposing Brett Kavanaugh?  For one thing, the Democrat antics are so vile that it has to be turning off a fair number of moderates and undecided voters, no matter how the liberal media spin it otherwise. 

And what of the Democrat base?  Ask yourself, who are the most critical part of the Democrat coalition in terms of votes?  It's not the abortion-loving feminists, although these shrills make the most noise.  It's the blacks.  Truth be told, none of what is going on in the Senate will motivate minorities to go out and vote.  In fact, it may deter them, as the show they're seeing has an innate stink to it.

How does this confirmation process affect the Republican and conservative base?  No doubt, if the Republican Senate votes down Kavanaugh, the GOP will suffer terribly.  But this is not likely, given that McConnell will not schedule a vote if he doesn't have the numbers.  If the Kavanaugh vote is merely postponed until after the election, the base will be energized to vote Republican.  Even the establishment Bush people will come out and vote Republican, as Kavanaugh is a Bush-type guy.

Pick your scenario.  Mine is the first one – Kavanaugh gets narrowly confirmed before November.