Trump’s strategy on race issues

Why did Donald Trump give a speech about how the Democrats have failed black Americans in a city that is the seat of a county with a black population of only 0.4%?  Trump could have spoken in Milwaukee County, just across the county line to the southeast, where blacks are over 24% of the county's population.  A speech delivered there might have been taken more seriously by the black media and been less ridiculed by the mainstream media.

Since the choice of venues for this prepared text looked ill advised upon first glance, I began to wonder.  Might black America not be the intended target of this speech?  The answer might be found in this fact.  In the April Wisconsin primary, Ted Cruz's margin of victory in Washington County, Wisconsin was almost 39 percentage points, a complete blowout.  Total Republican primary voters also outnumbered Democrat voters by three to one in the county, and total turnout was unusually high for any primary election anywhere: almost 65% of registered voters.  This is one deep red and white county where it is possible that a lot of voters are still blue that Trump is the nominee.

Perhaps the reason Trump gave the speech he did in West Bend, Wisconsin was because his campaign is belatedly recognizing an unpleasant fact many people warned could be a general election headache.  Having the David Duke contingent of the electorate singing Trump's praises has likely placed a ceiling on the level of support he can expect to earn from more affluent suburban voters.  So perhaps affluent suburban voters were the main target of a speech delivered in an affluent white suburban county about how to help black America.

No Republican candidate seriously anticipates that he will get more than a nominal percentage of the votes cast inside America's large cities.  It just doesn't happen in recent history.  But all Republicans know they are doomed if they don't do well in places like Washington County, Wisconsin.  Note that in 2012, Romney/Ryan carried the county by over 30,000 votes with a whopping 91% turnout.

Contrary to the media's conventional wisdom, this speech might be a “shore up the base” speech.  The intent might have been to appeal to a reluctant slice of the Republican-leaning electorate not to confuse Trump the candidate with some of Trump's more outrageous supporters while at the same time not directly repudiating the support Trump has obtained from such people. 

Why did Donald Trump give a speech about how the Democrats have failed black Americans in a city that is the seat of a county with a black population of only 0.4%?  Trump could have spoken in Milwaukee County, just across the county line to the southeast, where blacks are over 24% of the county's population.  A speech delivered there might have been taken more seriously by the black media and been less ridiculed by the mainstream media.

Since the choice of venues for this prepared text looked ill advised upon first glance, I began to wonder.  Might black America not be the intended target of this speech?  The answer might be found in this fact.  In the April Wisconsin primary, Ted Cruz's margin of victory in Washington County, Wisconsin was almost 39 percentage points, a complete blowout.  Total Republican primary voters also outnumbered Democrat voters by three to one in the county, and total turnout was unusually high for any primary election anywhere: almost 65% of registered voters.  This is one deep red and white county where it is possible that a lot of voters are still blue that Trump is the nominee.

Perhaps the reason Trump gave the speech he did in West Bend, Wisconsin was because his campaign is belatedly recognizing an unpleasant fact many people warned could be a general election headache.  Having the David Duke contingent of the electorate singing Trump's praises has likely placed a ceiling on the level of support he can expect to earn from more affluent suburban voters.  So perhaps affluent suburban voters were the main target of a speech delivered in an affluent white suburban county about how to help black America.

No Republican candidate seriously anticipates that he will get more than a nominal percentage of the votes cast inside America's large cities.  It just doesn't happen in recent history.  But all Republicans know they are doomed if they don't do well in places like Washington County, Wisconsin.  Note that in 2012, Romney/Ryan carried the county by over 30,000 votes with a whopping 91% turnout.

Contrary to the media's conventional wisdom, this speech might be a “shore up the base” speech.  The intent might have been to appeal to a reluctant slice of the Republican-leaning electorate not to confuse Trump the candidate with some of Trump's more outrageous supporters while at the same time not directly repudiating the support Trump has obtained from such people.