The advent of climate models has given an aura of certainly to climate predictions, but a model is no better than the science behind it or the data that feeds it.  Unless the weights and interrelationships of climate drivers have a solid scientific basis, feeding future predicted data into climate models lacks the same.  The same goes for data input.  Models do not make the science.  The models model the underlying science. A climate model can be viewed as basically a function.  The output value (temperature) is a function of the various values given to the chosen climate drivers (inputs) and their interrelationships.  Also a slight increase in the weight given to solar activity (or other drivers) with corresponding changes in weights given other input values can radically change future predictions while still modeling historical data.  (Amusingly, researchers at MIT fed random data to the Mann hockey stick model, and out popped the hockey...(Read Full Post)