Texas could secede, and succeed

Talk of Texas secession is heating up again.  More accurately, the movement is growing and maturing from its rather primitive born-again roots in the 1990s.

Support for Texas independence is high.  The latest reliable polling data from late 2014 shows that more than 36% of the state's residents are in favor of secession, with another 18% that are not sure.  This puts opposition to secession in the minority.

The legalities of secession have been analyzed in detail by various commentators and, in particular, the secessionist organizations.  In short, there is a very credible case that Texas could secede unilaterally and legally from the United States should a majority (i.e., the 50+1 rule) of its residents choose that route.

Across all secessionist movements, Texas is the most credible in terms of being able to immediately form a world-class independent nation.

The state's GDP is US$1.65 trillion, which would place it 12th among all nations if it seceded – barely behind Canada and Russia, and ahead of Australia, South Korea, Spain, and Mexico.  Its economy will likely surpass that of Canada in the near future, making an independent Texas the natural replacement for the Great White North in the G7 top industrialized nations.

Its population size puts Texas in the range between Australia and Canada.  In other words, into the viability category for a modern nation-state with an independent – and influential – foreign policy.

As of 2014, Texas's per capita GDP in current dollars was about US$61,200, which would make it one of the top 10 wealthiest nations on the planet, equal to Australia.  Most of this top 10 is made up of very small and geopolitically irrelevant nations (Liechtenstein, Qatar, Luxembourg, Bermuda, Norway, and Switzerland), meaning that it would be Texas and Australia as the two wealthiest among the serious players.

An independent Texas would have the highest per capita GDP in the newly reconstituted G7.  For perspective, Texas's per capita GDP is 12% higher than the rest of the USA's, 22% larger than Canada's, 28% larger than Germany's, 32% larger than the U.K.'s, 43% larger than France's, 72% larger than Japan's, and 77% larger than Italy's.

Texas is already home to a massive manufacturing sector, especially in advanced technologies such as energy extraction and the defense industries.  There would be little transition time needed for it to begin building its own military.  If Texas spent just 5% of its GDP on defense, it would have the world's third largest military expenditures, bringing it into a tie with Russia and behind only the rest of the USA and China.  Of course, Texas also has the technological know-how, manufacturing capacity, and access to fissile materials required to develop and deploy its own nuclear weapons.

Texas has deepwater ports for a blue-water navy if it chose that route, as well as for global exports.  Vast fossil fuel and renewable energy reserves are located on Texas territory, ensuring energy independence and prosperity in perpetuity.

Food security is always critical for a newly hatched nation, and Texas can easily meet that with its abundant and fertile agricultural lands.  Water will be a concern in the more arid regions, but this can be reliably and affordably met with appropriate diversion, retention, and transportation infrastructures in tandem with any needed nuclear-powered desalination plants along the Gulf Coast.

The state famously, and wisely, has its own electricity grid, making secession and subsequent electrical decoupling from what remains of the USA far less complicated.

But the key problem with the secession argument is what to do with the difficult areas of the state.

The major cities have large liberal populations that probably would never want to secede and thereby be tied far more closely to the conservative rural body of the population.  Even if secession occurred, the politics of these major cities – including and especially the politics of the primary universities and the state's bureaucracy – would be as bad as, if not worse than, that of the current federal government.  The globalists and internationalists control these halls of power in Texas.

To quote from The Patriot, "why should I trade one tyrant three thousand miles away for three thousand tyrants one mile away?"

Think Obama's administration isn't to your liking?  Look closely, and you will see that same culture in the statewide institutions.  Local government doesn't make the problems better if it is filled with the same types as at the federal level.  You are literally just trading tyrants in D.C. for tyrants in Austin.  This aspect of the secession movement has received far too little serious discussion, and yet it is the most important.

If anything, the state's love affair with immigration in recent decades has made secession more difficult, and the desired change after secession even less likely.  Are Texans ready to close the doors and clean up the system?

Texas's secession movement is unique, because it could – in theory – succeed and lead to a very wealthy and independent nation-state.  In this, Texas can claim hold to the theoretical foundations that almost all other seccession movements fail on.  The other cases for secession are often so absurd as to equate with a newborn attempting to live a fully independent life.  Texas does not suffer from this fatal flaw.

So there is a clear and viable path for an independent Texas, but the question is whether there is the will to follow the way and build something other than a smaller version of the same problems that exist in the current union.  On this latter point, the verdict is far from certain.