Donald Trump’s embarrassing third-place finish in NY
Do not be fooled by first impressions.
Donald Trump might have rolled to 60 percent of the Republican vote in New York Tuesday night, but he came in a distant third in the big scheme of things nonetheless. Keep in mind, this is the candidate and the campaign that constantly pout about one-man one-vote and popular vote totals. They threaten to both call the lawyers about this concept and to riot in Cleveland over this. Thus, by Trump's own standards, Trump got thrashed in New York. Both Hillary and Bernie Sanders destroyed Trump in raw vote totals.
I'm not saying Trump didn't win the N.Y. Republican primary big. He did. I'm not even arguing that Trump is cheating to get 90% of the delegates with only 60% of the vote – although I could do just that, again using Trump's standards and Trump's own words and Team Trump's talking points. It would be easy. All I'm pointing out is that even in a yuuuuuuuge win, the numbers put the lie to the Donald Trump campaign. This was his best night so far, and yet the seeds of disaster are obvious for any who would but pay attention.
That popular vote total should bring the pom-pom clan back to Earth.
Remember that Trump is supposedly the man who will by his mere presence put blue states, even New York, into play. The message board trolls drone endlessly about this. As do some websites and talk show hosts – not to mention the Trump surrogates. Again, by their own self-imposed standard, Trump really got humiliated Tuesday night.
Consider: Hillary Clinton tallied over a million votes. Over three quarters of a million New York voters "felt the Bern." Trump was just over half a million. You say, "Okay okay, but it's New York." Yes, it's New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation. Yes, it's New York, home to the most liberal Republican Party establishment in the nation.
Yes, it's New York, where what Republicans do in presidential election terms is both merely a rounding error and totally irrelevant. You could say that, compared to the Democrats, New York's Republican primary was a "voterless" contest. In a cycle when the New York media was buzzing about the Republicans and bored to tears by the Democrats, nearly two million Democrats still sleepwalked to the polls while the foaming-at-the-mouth Republicans pulled the lever far less than a million times.
In other words, on Trump's best night ever in New York, he would have been totally trounced by either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. The notion that Trump can win blue states like New York is just laughable. Tuesday is irrevocable proof.
Now, to be fair, I am not one who says Trump cannot win the general election. I see the polls, and they are problematic, but the truth lies somewhere in between the doomsayers riding on current head-to-head polls and the absurd "look what Reagan did and he was 30 points behind at this stage" Trumpbot position. The theory here is that 2016 will play out like 1980, and Trump will win just as Reagan did versus Carter.
Uh, no. Don't try this analogy at home. A coincidental similarity does not an equivalency make.
Trump is no Reagan, polling today is not what polling was in 1980, and Trump's name recognition is about 100% already. I mean, seriously, who is going to change his mind about Trump between now and November? Almost no one. Having said that, Hillary is weak enough to lose to anyone potentially, even John Kasich or Paul Ryan. And she could lose to Trump.
But the notion that Trump is going to win New York, to re-establish the Reagan Democrats (most of whom registered Republican years ago anyway) and mop the electoral floor with Hillary, is and always was fantasy. On Tuesday night, Trump's best night ever, this was made clear.
Edmund Wright is contributor to American Thinker, Breitbart, Newsmax TV, and Talk Radio Network and an Amazon Best Selling Elections Book author.