The Rubio/Trump Dream Paths

Jeb Bush has suspended his campaign in light of his 8% showing in South Carolina. Trump got 33%, Rubio got 22%, Cruz got 22%, with Kasich and Carson getting 15% between them. It seems quite likely that most of Jeb’s vote will go to Rubio, say 6 of his 8%. I doubt that many Jeb supporters will go to Trump, but give him and Kasich 1% each.  That would leave Trump with 34%, Rubio 28%, and Cruz 22%.  For once I concur with the pundits that there is no plausible path for Carson, and barely one for Kasich. Kasich is counting on a win in Ohio but that is far from certain and would do little to help him elsewhere. Both Carson and Kasich would be doing a great patriotic service by suspending their campaigns. If they did, my guess is that Carson’s support goes mostly to Cruz, and Kasich’s mostly to Rubio. I strongly disagree with the pundits on the inevitability of a Trump victory. The above arithmetic, if correct, would leave a three-man race looking like Trump...(Read Full Post)