The Rubio/Trump Dream Paths

Jeb Bush has suspended his campaign in light of his 8% showing in South Carolina. Trump got 33%, Rubio got 22%, Cruz got 22%, with Kasich and Carson getting 15% between them. It seems quite likely that most of Jeb’s vote will go to Rubio, say 6 of his 8%. I doubt that many Jeb supporters will go to Trump, but give him and Kasich 1% each.  That would leave Trump with 34%, Rubio 28%, and Cruz 22%.  For once I concur with the pundits that there is no plausible path for Carson, and barely one for Kasich. Kasich is counting on a win in Ohio but that is far from certain and would do little to help him elsewhere. Both Carson and Kasich would be doing a great patriotic service by suspending their campaigns. If they did, my guess is that Carson’s support goes mostly to Cruz, and Kasich’s mostly to Rubio.

I strongly disagree with the pundits on the inevitability of a Trump victory. The above arithmetic, if correct, would leave a three-man race looking like Trump 37%, Rubio 35%, Cruz 28%.   That looks like almost a three way tie. But, barring new developments it is hard to see where Trump or Cruz pick up considerable support from each other or from Rubio. Back room deals are hard to ask for, but maybe Cruz could accept being Attorney General in a Rubio-Haley administration. Imagine that, with John Bolton at State, Ben Carson at HHS, John Kasich at Treasury, maybe Lindsey Graham at Defense. And oh yeah, Hillary Clinton for cell block captain.

If Trump is creative enough to lock up most of those cabinet members onto his team first, that would be just fine too. Now I understand what it means to be a Dreamer.

Jeb Bush has suspended his campaign in light of his 8% showing in South Carolina. Trump got 33%, Rubio got 22%, Cruz got 22%, with Kasich and Carson getting 15% between them. It seems quite likely that most of Jeb’s vote will go to Rubio, say 6 of his 8%. I doubt that many Jeb supporters will go to Trump, but give him and Kasich 1% each.  That would leave Trump with 34%, Rubio 28%, and Cruz 22%.  For once I concur with the pundits that there is no plausible path for Carson, and barely one for Kasich. Kasich is counting on a win in Ohio but that is far from certain and would do little to help him elsewhere. Both Carson and Kasich would be doing a great patriotic service by suspending their campaigns. If they did, my guess is that Carson’s support goes mostly to Cruz, and Kasich’s mostly to Rubio.

I strongly disagree with the pundits on the inevitability of a Trump victory. The above arithmetic, if correct, would leave a three-man race looking like Trump 37%, Rubio 35%, Cruz 28%.   That looks like almost a three way tie. But, barring new developments it is hard to see where Trump or Cruz pick up considerable support from each other or from Rubio. Back room deals are hard to ask for, but maybe Cruz could accept being Attorney General in a Rubio-Haley administration. Imagine that, with John Bolton at State, Ben Carson at HHS, John Kasich at Treasury, maybe Lindsey Graham at Defense. And oh yeah, Hillary Clinton for cell block captain.

If Trump is creative enough to lock up most of those cabinet members onto his team first, that would be just fine too. Now I understand what it means to be a Dreamer.