Why Donald Trump's poll numbers may actually be understated

Politico has a thoughtful piece explaining why Donald Trump's lead may not be as large as it seems.  Reading the article carefully, I came away with the opposite conclusion. According to the latest polls, Donald Trump is in the lead with anywhere between 27% and 36% of the vote - quite a wide gap, depending on which poll you look at. The big problem with polls is you don't know exactly who is going to vote, and many people who are polled don't end up voting. Republican pollster B.J. Martino parsed the new CNN poll that has Trump looking all but unbeatable at this stage: “They have a sample of 1,020 adults – and 445 of those they say constitute the Republican primary universe. Basically, their poll is saying 43.6 percent of all Americans adults are voting in a Republican primary nationwide. When you go back to 2012, it’s 12.2 percent.” Even when polls narrow themselves to likely voters, they still get it wrong....(Read Full Post)

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