According to the latest National Climate Assessment, the number of frigid nights (<32°F) will decline in the American Southeast by the 2041-2070 period due to anthropogenic climate change, and the change will be most strongly felt in the northern portion of the region. At least that's what the climate models predict will happen over the next quarter-century. The climate models always make things look so tidy. Smooth trends over time, homogenous and consistent trends within regions, etc. -- in other words, so unlike reality. The devil is always in the details, particularly in climate science. Two key questions come to mind: (1) are the number of nights below freezing currently on the decline all throughout the region over the past few decades?; and (2) what is the longer-term context for frigid nights in the Southeast? The answer to the first question is no. Only 20 of 56 climate regions (36 percent) in the Southeast show significant declines in the number of...(Read Full Post)