July 13, 2013
Perry in 2016?
Governor Perry won't see reelection in 2014. He's been on the job since Governor Bush became President Bush in 2000. Like Bush, Perry understands that Hispanics are a factor in elections. He has also proven in Texas that you can be tough on border security, call for small government and get Hispanic support.
Michael Warren has a good piece about Perry & Hispanics:
" In 2010, running for his third full term, the Republican governor won the support of more than 400,000 Hispanic voters in Texas, his best performance to date."
The key was Perry's strategy. They treated Hispanics like other voters. They spoke to Hispanics about issues that matter to all of us.
Back to Mr Warren:
"That message was part economic, part populist: The Perry regime of lower taxes and smaller, less intrusive government had kept the economy booming through the Great Recession and kept more money in the average Texan's pocket. That convinced the majority of Texas voters, who reelected Perry over his Democratic challenger by double digits. More remarkable, though, was how the Anglo Republican also managed to convince about 40 percent of Hispanic voters, who are traditionally and overwhelmingly Democratic. That was a major improvement for Perry, who in 2006 received closer to 31 percent of the Hispanic vote."
Perhaps Perry blew it in 2012. Maybe his time has passed. However, I don't buy that at all.
Perry will have a few things going in 2016:
1) He will be running after a 2-term Democrat presidency. My guess is that the Obama record won't look any better in 2016 than it does now.
2) He may be the compromise candidate, the successful governor with an amazing record and the populist appeal that will play well in 2016. He will be much better prepared for the next primary.
3) Don't underestimate Perry. He is one heck of a fighter and will take it to whatever Democrat runs against him in 2016.
I supported Governor Romney over Governor Perry in 2012. I felt that Romney's business experience and executive demeanor would triumph. Unfortunately, I overlooked how vulnerable Romney was to the cheap attacks from the Obama campaign. Also, I think that Romney was too nice of a man and did not hit Obama back in kind.
Perry would have been a totally different candidate. He would have punched back and gone after Obama without mercy. He would have also put together a team focused on winning and turnout.
So Governor Perry will leave Austin in January 2015. He is already planning a trip to Israel. My guess is that he will be planning to move to Washington in January 2017.