Republican Senate majority hopes in danger

With 23 Democrat Senate seats and only 10 Republican seats up for election this year, a Republican Senate majority was supposed to be within easy reach.  The only question was how big a majority.

But with about six weeks until the election, a disturbing picture of the Senatorial elections is emerging. 

The Real Clear Politics (RCP) Senate map shows Republicans picking up just one seat, taking the Senate from the current 53-47 Democrat to 52-48 Democrat.  The RCP projection has Republicans picking up North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana, but losing Massachusetts and Maine.  Even Montana is a very close race, with the Democrat incumbent Jon Tester within one point of the challenger, Denny Rehberg.

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown is still within a few points of class warrior Elizabeth Warren, but Warren has a big fundraising advantage from the left-wing Democrat base.

And in other close races RCP polling data gives the nod to the Democrat in Connecticut, Virginia and Wisconsin.  If those three go Republican, then the balance tips to 51-49 Republican.  If only two more seats go Republican, a Romney-Ryan win would allow a vice-president Paul Ryan to cast the deciding 51st vote.

The Ohio race, with Obama ally Sherrod Brown defending his seat against 33-year old state Treasurer, and Iraq veteran, Josh Mandel, was within a few points two weeks ago, but Brown has now opened a seven point lead.

In Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill remains under 50 percent, but still five points ahead of Rep. Todd Akin, with nearly 10 percent undecided.  With McCaskill unpopular, Missouri was there for the taking, but for Mr. Akin's unfortunate and misguided comments.

While there is technically a September 25 deadline for Akin to withdraw through a court order, the cost of reprinting ballots makes that financially very difficult at this point.  It would appear that Mr. Akin is in the race until the bitter end.  Newt Gingrich will be fundraising for Akin next week, but the challenger is currently being outspent by McCaskill by 10-1.

What all of this adds up to, if current polling data holds true, is the 33 states electing Senators this year appear to be breaking 2-1 Democrat, with 22 Democrats and 11 Republicans to be added to the 30 continuing Democrats and the 37 continuing Republicans in the Senate.

Voters in those 33 states would appear set to vote overwhelmingly, as they have in the past, for more ObamaCare and EPA regulation, more unemployment and trillion-dollar deficits, and in general for more transformation and redistribution under Barack Obama.

Not a pretty picture.

There are still six weeks to go, and the only poll that counts tales place on November 6, but Republicans have their work cut out for them to hold the Senate, not to mention ousting Barack Obama.