Polls, if you must

Jay Cost today in The Weekly Standard should provide more than a little encouragement to conservatives who've prematurely taken to drink because of Romney's current alleged poll deficits. Cost's central point - and he is among the most prescient of poll observers -- is that most major polling organizations are oversampling Democrats, based on an assumption that the 2012 electorate will demographically match 2008's, when blacks, Hispanics and under thirty's constituted record percentages. In discussing Ohio, for example, Cost points out that if this year's electoral demographics turn out to be a compromise between those of 2008 and 2004 -- a reasonable assumption, he thinks -- then this year's Ohio electorate would contain only a one to two point Democrat edge, which in turn would produce a razor thin outcome that would be determined by independents.  But in its current poll of Ohio showing an alleged eight point Obama lead (52-44), the Washington Post sample is based on a seven...(Read Full Post)