Analyzing the 2012 election

This article by John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira is the best analysis of the 2012 Presidential election I have yet seen.  It was prepared by two liberal academics, one of whom I have met. The authors contend that 37 states are pretty much safe for one party or the other.  This list includes 14 states for Obama with 186 Electoral College votes, and 23 states (many of them smaller ) for the Republican nominee with 191 Electoral College votes. How does either candidate get to 270?   Of the 13 tossups, one is in the Northeast, New Hampshire (4), 6 are in the Midwest or rust belt: Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10).  Three are in the South: Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13).   Three are in the Southwest: Colorado ((9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5). All 13 states were won by Obama in 2008, and 5 were won by John Kerry in 2008).   The article examines the minority vote for each state except New Hampshire,  the...(Read Full Post)