Both Gallup and Rasmussen show a wide split between the two parties with three weeks to go:Among voters Gallup estimates to be most likely to vote at this point under either a higher- or lower-turnout scenario, Republicans maintain substantial double-digit advantages. In Gallup's higher-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%. In Gallup's lower-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 56% to 39%. These likely voter estimates are based on respondents' answers to seven turnout questions, with the results used to assign a "likelihood to vote" score to each registered voter and, in turn, to create hypothetical models of the electorate based on various turnout scenarios.In addition to turnout, independents' voting intentions are a critical determinant of the midterm election outcome - particularly relevant, given that more than 90% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans say they will vote for their party's candidate in the elections. At this point, independents tilt strongly toward...(Read Full Post)