The latest Rasmussen poll in Florida shows Charlie Crist has surged into the lead. Crist 38Rubio 34Meeks 17Half or more of Meeks' support has moved to Crist. It is clear that Crist will attack Rubio for 6 months (his only real threat), and argue that he is the moderate reasonable guy fighting two more highly partisan candidates. I think Crist could win, though I think Rubio is a slight favorite. Crist is a bit of a megalomaniac, and he may see this centrist strategy as creating a path for a third party run for president. That's delusional to be sure, but he never would have decided not to run for re-election for governor, and instead seek a Senate seat if he did not have the White House in mind.  This poll is evidence that movement conservatives in Florida may be a majority of the GOP, but  are nowhere near a majority of the electorate. Independents move left or right, and determine the winner each year in competitive state races.Rubio has some advantages: the party...(Read Full Post)