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December 7, 2009
Gaming Iran scenarios; a Kobayashi Maru test?
David Ignatius is one of the most respected Middle East hands in the press corps. He has worked in many countries in the region and has, in my opinion, usually a realistic outlook on what American interests are.Ignatius was allowed to observe an exercise at Harvard involving some former heavy hitters at state and the White House that gamed out various Iran scenarios that are likely to occur over the next few months and what he saw didn't encourage him.Writing in the Washington Post, Ignatius was trying to keep score:My scorecard had Team Iran as the winner and Team America as the loser. The U.S. team -- unable to stop the Iranian nuclear program and unwilling to go to war -- concluded the game by embracing a strategy of containment and deterrence. The Iranian team wound up with Russia and China as its diplomatic protectors. And the Israeli team ended in a sharp break with Washington.Mind you, this was just an exercise. But it revealed some important real-life dynamics -- and...(Read Full Post)