May 31, 2008
Two Views on McCain's Chances in the Fall
The favorable View for McCain comes from the daily Rasmussen tracking poll . Today McCain is ahead 46-43 over Obama.
"McCain is viewed favorably by 52% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Those figures include 19% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican hopeful and 23% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Obama's numbers are 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Those figures represent Obama's lowest ratings of the year. His favorability ratings peaked at 56% in mid-February. Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 37% have a Very Unfavorable view. Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats. On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation."37% holding strongly negative views on Obama is big trouble for the candidate.
On the other hand there is this assessment on the race from Alan Abramowitz which provides historical context for the tough environment for McCain this year:
My take on the two views of the race is that whites who are made nervous by Obama are finding more and more reasons to reject him. The environment for GOP is horrible as Abramowitz suggests. A mainstream Democrat like Mark Warner would win a huge victory if he ran this year. Hillary would probably win comfortably as well . Obama is by far the weakest Democrat (though the media love affair makes him look like a stronger candidate than he is). Blacks and idolatrous young voters are not the only ones who go the the polls, and only 25% have strongly favorable views of Obama (about half of whom are African Americans).
McCain is the least Republican looking candidate the GOP could nominate, in a year when the GOP brand is near toxic for a large majority of voters. . So the race is closer than it should be and McCain has a real shot at winning. Howard Dean's stupidity on Michigan and Florida - two swing states with 45 Electoral College votes between them, has been a big help as well.
Richard Baehr is Chief Political Correspondent for The American Thinker