Noting that Sarkozy's polling lead over Royal in France is considered a "large margin", the blog (new to me) Dr. Charlemagne's Woes posits an intriguing theory: "The 50/50 rule."It has to do with the scientific concept of a "steady-state." This phenominon is frequently encountered in chemistry. For example, the evaporation of water into a closed space. What happens is that water molecules leave the liquid phase for the gas phase until there are so many gas molecules floating around that every time one tries to leap into the gas, another has landed in the liquid. While many of the individual molecules may change their state over and over again, the number in each state reaches an equilibrium.As similar kind of phenominon is observed in social systems such as the stock market. The famous Chicago School efficient market theorists showed, essentially, how natural markets can efficiently find the exact price of something for a given set of conditions. Change a...(Read Full Post)