Weighing the Future: Coronavirus and the Economy

The decline in the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) since the top on February 19 exceeds 20%, a circumstance which by convention defines the end of the prior bull market.  The advance from the previous bear market low (March 9, 2009) saw the index rise from 676.53 to its peak of 3,386.15, an increase of 400.52%. This second bull market of the 21st century lasted nearly eleven years, far longer than the 6.09-yr. average during the ten bull phases of the post- World War II era, and longer than any prior bull market during that period except the great boom which followed the war. The annualized index performance in this long march was 15.83%, less than the 17.19% post-war average. But having run longer than a typical advance, the cumulative result during the teen years of the new century was exceeded only once before since the postwar boom.   These bull market gains were a delight, but it’s likely that most of us didn’t...(Read Full Article)
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