Clinton vs. Trump: Competing Cohorts

Perhaps the most fascinating component of the 2016 election is the dynamic between the putative front-running candidates and their supporters, who in turn are comprised of three cohorts.  The nature of these three legs suggests that Clinton has a firm floor and I believe a fairly fixed ceiling of support, while Trump’s floor and ceiling are comparatively fluid, making the forecasting of this race a headache.  Assessing Clinton’s position in this regard is fairly straightforward; Trump’s is far more complex and problematic. As Indianapolis broadcaster (and former prosecutor) Greg Garrison is wont to say in order to spark a discussion, “Let’s assume facts not yet in evidence.”  So let us entertain these two “facts not yet in evidence” -- Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be the nominees for the upcoming presidential election.  I’m not arguing that they will not be the candidates -- the signs are pointing...(Read Full Article)

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