Don't Bet on Obama's Likeability Rating

Despite declining approval numbers, pundits are opining that Obama will be re-elected because of his personal likeability rating.  Lacking a background in market research, they are taking at face value a question with much more subtle implications. In legitimate polling, three major factors include the sample, the questions, and the methodology (manner in which the poll is administered).  To provide valid results, the sample must be truly representative of the target audience.  For example, a purported "national sample" that skews heavily toward Democratic or Republican voters does not meet this criterion.  Also, a sample drawn from the general population for the purposes of predicting the outcome of a national election will not be as effective as one drawn from a sample of likely voters.  Another consideration is the size of the sample.  If properly constructed, it follows that the larger the sample size, the more valid the results will be.  The...(Read Full Article)