January 27, 2011

Making Obama a One-Term President

By Richard Baehr
We are slightly more than 21 months away from the 2012 presidential election.  The election in 2012 will be not a simple referendum on Barack Obama (for which an approval score is a proxy), but a choice between two candidates.  While many potential GOP candidates are exploring a run, it is not possible at this point to even select a favorite from the bunch, since the field is so uncertain, and some candidates designated by some pundits as second-tier would diminish the prospects of others considered as first-tier if they ran.  An example of this would be if Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin both ran, or if Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence both ran.  If the GOP candidate who emerges is the strongest general election nominee, the odds on President Obama's reelection are very different from if the GOP nominee is popular within the party but has limited appeal to the over 60% of voters who are not Republicans.  It is not at all surprising that President Obama has made...(Read Full Article)