Election Prediction

The final deluge of national tracking polls and state polls has arrived, and they reveal a most unusual picture. Barack Obama's lead in the national tracking polls has widened by almost 2% in the final days, now standing at 7.4% in the realclearpoltics.com average. Put quite simply, it is inconceivable that a candidate could win the national popular vote by over 7% (conceivably a 10 million vote margin if the turnout hits 140 million), and lose the Electoral College. And yet, on a state by state level in the key battleground states, the race is much closer and appears to have tightened in the last few days.  This is not to say that Obama is in any serious danger of losing.  But the national margin may be less indicative of the state of the race than in prior years, due to a wide imbalance in what I and other call "wasted votes" or excess votes in landslide states. In 2004, George Bush won big margins in many Southern states and in Indiana, the upper Midwest and...(Read Full Article)